Little risk of takeout of Tyhee
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 08, 2009 10:11AM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
Based in part on the strong hands, our own AG TDC holders, and the strong personal vision/leadsership of DW et all, I don't think we need to be afraid that TDC will be taken out by any kind of undervalued takeout.
First of all, because Tyhee is not in any kind of distress. By the time Sept rolls around, and there is a need to raise some money to bolser the coffers for the 09/10 winter, the following should have taken place.
1. A reasonable recovery of SP as the junior sector improves somehwat.
2. Tyhee puts in the DAR in about Sept. This leads to a few information requests (ping-pong) back and forth, but also the scheduling of MVEIR public hearings. This is key, as there is actually a lot of money in the hands of local investors in Yellowknife, many of whom bought into diamond mines exporation plays that resulted in huge profits in the realization of the diamond mines. So I put it to you that not only will Tyhee be on the radar of advisors, funds, analysts and others in the larger investment community, but also a local effect of Yellowknifers all starting to talk about the PROS and cons of a gold mine starting to operate again in the Yellowkinfe area. The public hearings, therefore, are a turning point in Tyhee story becoming well known and very INVEST-ABLE, not to mention that we will have progressed farther along in our benchmars.
3. The majority of shareholders got in at a much higher price, perhaps in the 70 cent range. If any takeout were to be worthwhile, even for funds who just want to show a solid return/ quick improvement in their books in time for Dec 2009, they would want to see the company valued at say 2 or 3 times what they paid, so a share price of $1.50 to $2.10 per share. But once tyhee is through a dollar, and has the market cap, they will be able to raise finances for a go-it alone deal. So shareholders will be in the very enviable position of having suitors, and turning them down. Or, multiple bids get made and the TDC board can throw back their own terms. If that were the case, joint ventures with much better valuations could become a point of discussion.
4. Increased interest in our sector, with every day gold stays above $900, and accelerating when gold takes out $1030, will help as even when our gold is valued at only $10.00 per ounce, our resource is expanding. When valuations creep back to a modest $50/ounce, and the new clan lake results add another 100,000 onces or so, we should return to the mid thirties and contiue from there.
That would give us a $0.75 - $0.90 share price, just as we stand today.
Don't forget, when majors take out solid (not distressed) juniors with reserves and much exploration potential (at depth) they pay several hundred dollars per ounce. So when any late-stage development companies get taken out, Tyhee becomes that much more attractive. WHile we want to (and will) avoid that, such M&A activity will benefit our valuation returning to a sane level.
With all of this in mind, I think the only people who would sell shares below multiple-dollars are actually us, on Tyhee AG land, who have a low average price below 30 cents, as taking profits at say 70 to 90 cents may appear worthwhile from a day-trader type of mindset. Some of those who have bought say 400,000 to 600,000 with an avage price below 20 cents would have to get cleaned out.
Perhaps as many as 2 or 3 million shares would trade back-and forth between next week (tuesday's Sec Geitner announcemnt?) and the likely sept benchmark of the DAR. In that timeframe, SP will start to move up a few cents at a time, and the stock will see increasing volume / liquidity, attracting day-traders and investors alike. But this will actually be a very good sign, as trading activity will improve the investor confidence in the SP, and more and more will become familiar with the story.
Conclusion? expect to see volume increase and some volatility over the coming months, but don't be afraid that a takeout is in the cards, it's not.
Here's to a good week for Tyhee gold!
SKELEG