What will it take to get Tyhee valued sanely? a through g...
posted on
Feb 16, 2009 01:06PM
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Here's a thought: Tyhee will be better valued when a variety of good things happen. Any one of which will begin the process of restoring rational valuation:
a. POG goes through the magic number of $1030 or so, taking out the resistance of the previus nominal high and setting the stage for a continued bull run. Drawing investors into the gold sector in a way that really does lift all ships, as well as bring new investors into the penny stocks. Could happen by end FEB.
and or b. other similar juniors are taken out or do JVs, making the attractivenss of Tyhee go up in sympathy as people speculate that Tyhee may be offered a bought deal or a JV. Will happen from time to time this spring and summer, the weakest first, as seen with CSM (look at their rise from 15 cents to a dollar in what, 3 weeks?)
and or c. Tyhee does a great job in writing the DAR and submits it in Sept or so. This benchmark may attract some attention. Certainly the publication of dates for the MVEIRB pre-hearing conference and public hearings for Oct '09 to Mar '10 will generate investor interest in the Yellowknife area as well as news releases and potentially interviews on BNN and other networks as Tyhee is moving towards a permit. Being valued as a development company is that next level of corporate life that DW is aiming at and or d. one or more analyst gives Tyhee a buy recommendation. This or other listing of where Tyhee fits vis a vis others would help get us on the radar screen. Should be by Sept / Oct this year.
and or e. DW and the Board decide that it is time to put some actal effort into investor relations. For example, once the decision on Winter Lake as the tailings site is made, TDC could pay for graphics on the mine plan to be used in discussions for everythign from financing, investor relations and to negotiations with contractors such as Nuna Logistics (open pit mine contractor) and local yellowknife suppliers. Of course this shoudl be done BEFORE the public hearings, as the public needs graphics to help to SEE what is beign discussed. Could be done in June or July, if Tyhee is able to consult enough on fish/water PH issues before submitting the DAR in Sept. (Tyhee needs to settle this Question to finalize the plan!)
and or e. one of the major shareholders decides to promot tyhee to their clients, to increase their wealth or to sell shares at a profit. This would require a share price in the dollar or so range, as most shareholders average price must be well over 50 or 60 cents. This won't likely happen until other preconditions have been met. Say Oct?
and or f. the pending assay results from the old Clan Lake cores bring in some surprising results which draw some attention to Tyhee, or the resources become a few hundred thousand ounces more. I bet they will be out on Tuesday 17, Thursday 19, Tuesday 24 or Thursday 26 of Feb - Prior to PDAC, 1-4 March. Note: Tyhee has a booth at PDAC, and DW is giving a presentation. Someone take and post notes? I can't go! Actually, there may be two news releases in the next two weeks, leading in as was done last year, to my recolection.
and or g. My own end game is initiated. The first stage of my end game is to send a letter to a few of my friends in West Vancouver / greater Vancouver who are not into gold. These friends have told me they won't touch gold juniors until their advisors like them. Typically, these advisors have lost their clients lots of money and disliked gold. I am watching the issue closely, as I don't want to encourage investment in Tyhee to these relatively big fish until I am sure I wont' be embarrased (again) by the share price falling farther. a half-dozen or so contacts have bought small numbers (3,000 to 50,000) shares only to see the share price fall or flatline. Of course, I encouraged those poor souls to average down, to get their SP average to the mid twenties if possible. Some did, but others are in the painful hold-and regret mode. So my credibility is hurt, and that hurts. But when the share price starts rising, and there are analysist ratings (or a water use permit) and other ways to confirm my suggestion that Tyhee is a good investment, then I'll send my letter encouraging a good look WITH THEIR ADVISORS to these very hare-to-convince people. I bet many of you understand my reluctance here. Being 'down' (50%) is a very private thing, after all. The second stage of my end-game is to invest some of my most dearly held investments into Tyhee, which would be akin to selling gold bullion to buy juniors. I'm not there yet, but will be when the share price starts to move up solidly.
So there are my 7 things which it will take (any of one?) to get Tyhee share price moving towards rational valuation. In my book, rational valuation would be 60 cents per oz for NI-43-101 resources (M&I&I) plus something for having moved along with the DAR process, plus something for being in Canada, plus something for sitting on top of what is obviously more gold to be drilled off at depth, plus something for the goodwill/local connectivity that gold mining has in YK, plus something for the blue sky potential of the entire constellation. So let's say it should be worth 80 dollars / oz yesterday, and half again when the DAR is in with MVWIRB. That's a dollar to a dollar and a half per share, plus this spring's new resource...
And you can guess at how that $1.50 this Sept/Oct becomes $6.00 by say Sept 2010, when Tyhee is in the License and Permit phase.
Am I confident that this will ensue? Yes. But as frustrated as the rest on when.
SKELEG