B

It seems like Oct08 was the “panic” low , there maybe more capitulation lows on the way in the next month or two but them seem to be more “step stair” in nature , Bill McLaren has an article on Safehaven today with a target of 636 anytime over the next 6 weeks. And Bob Hoye’s Chartworks put out a measured low of around 670ish and 630ish . The difference maybe that any capitulations are a bit more orderly as far as gold is concerned. This is purely my own speculation here but the last few months in the gold market must have left an imprint in speculators heads that gold is just not an anti dollar trade.

The bigger the picture the more correct Bob has been , and his longer term picture if anyone caught his interview on Howestreet is that net net the gold stocks will out perform the indexes on a yearly basis. In 08 Bob was happy to short the gold stocks but I don’t think he is going to suggest that this year , he may suggest taking some profits to go back in later and he may suggest shorting silver stocks if the gold/silver ratio looks like breaking up again.

Cheers

SH