Some perhaps unpopular thoughts
posted on
Mar 29, 2009 10:45AM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
I listen every week to FSN as many do here. Often I get ideas/information as a result. But let's be honest here - JP missed - BIG TIME MISSED - the effect of the credit crisis on all PM equities, from majors to explorers and all in-between. Don't get me wrong - I understand first hand how that could happen, because my portfolio hasn't broken any records since 2007 either. However, perhaps there should be a message here. Just because FSN starts recommending new allocations, doesn't make it automatically correct.
My suspicion is that Puplava is going to begin recommending an overweight to physical and its surrogates like his new bullion fund as compared to miners. Well, that certainly was THE PLAY for the past 2 years. But if that is his new mandate, is it possible that he may be behind the curve?
Just in case I'm right about his upcoming recommended portfolio changes save this post because I'll quantify his measuring stick below:
>>>>HUI is currently ~325; CEF is currently ~12<<<<
Granted, simply comparing relative returns of mining stocks (HUI) vs bullion (CEF) ignores risk adjusted return. It doesn't even include juniors. However, to a first order, this ratio has certainly told the story over the past 2 years and will probably do so going forward as well. Can you guess where I think the money is to be made in this sector going forward? Hint: it's opposite what I guess Puplava is about to recommend. LOL
Strike