Relative valuations
posted on
Mar 31, 2009 10:15AM
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In late October 2007, TDC was 0.82 when POG was 775. The difference then vs now is that despite the increase in M&I, TDC is almost a factor of 6 less despite gold's $150 climb. It is the lack of available financing that is suppressing the price. We can increase M&I by 50% more and likely do little in the way of making it back to 0.82
I think only 3 things can shake things up significantly:
a) credit loosens b) POG really takes off c) mine progress occurs. Item c won't happen without private financing or a JV. Item a may never happen. Item b is our best shot near term IMO. At some price for gold things will explode. But we may be hundreds of dollars away.
Strike