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Message: Dave Webb responds to my latest Q-Call.

Dave Webb responds to my latest Q-Call.

posted on Apr 06, 2009 04:48AM

I asked Dave Webb, Tyhee's CEO, what he thought of my latest Q-Call (see my previous post) and which company most resembles Tyhee.

Here is his paraphrased response.

Cheers,

Baires

.......................................

Interesting Q line question… I didn't catch Jim declaring his shift in emphasis but it is apparent from his filings that this has been going on for several months. We've been talking to industry reps from other gold explorers and junior producers, investment bankers, fund managers and analysts. Consensus is that there is no money for pure explorers except in exceptional circumstances. There is some interest in juniors if they have a production profile. Producers can get any amount of money.

The investment cycle has been around since recorded time but is getting better understood as we have easier access to information. We typically go from no interest in resources, to some interest in resources, to irrational exuberance with everything having too much money thrown at it. Then the crash comes and funds first exclude explorers, then developers, then producers, and then we start over again. This cycle can be measured by the recent crashes in resource investment (2008, 1999, 1989, 1985, 1982, 1976). You can see that it is generally an 8-10 year cycle with occasional short term aberrations.

Unfortunately, the mine development cycle from discovery, delineation, permitting, development and production which was in the past 10 years has now extends over 15 to 20 years. This means we might have to survive 1 to 3 down turns. Jim's example of Minefinders with its Dolores mine is a case in point. It was originally discovered in the 1980's, advance by Echobay Mines Inc. through the late 1980's and 1990's. Between 2002 and 2007 development and delineation work lead to a feasibility study that was initially released in 2006. Financing and construction commenced through 2007 and 2008 with initial start-up in late 2008 and commercial production anticipated in 2009. In total, Minefinders took at least 20 years to reach production.

Tyhee's project was originally discovered in 1992 and developed through to 1997. The crash of 1998 halted all development and in this depressed marked allowed Tyhee to acquire the property in 2001. Our exploration and delineation work allowed us to complete a PA in 2008, and clearly the current crash makes advancement more difficult. If mining cycles are true to their past, then we'll see renewed interest later this year with 2010 marking the start of the silly part. Fortunately we were aware of this cycle. We purchase our gold assets in 2001 when the "experts" were astounded anyone would buy gold. In 2005 we started planning to develop by initiating our engineering studies and permitting work at a time when all the "experts" were saying "just explore, don't develop". Now you see us entering the final permitting stages, having been referred to an EA in 2008. Jim has, in the past, demonstrated that he understands these cycles well. And, he generally profit from them. This last market collapse is rather extreme, but to talk to people in the business, we're seeing historically unprecedented quantities of cash assembling on the sidelines. Brokers are now talking about clients ON AVERAGE being 40% to 50% in cash. I love to see this, as we live in a capitalist world, and capital must be employed. I have a pretty good idea where some of this cash will go.

On companies like Tyhee......let me get back to the office and look at Canaccor, Dundee and National Banks' listings.

Dave

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