I mentioned this a few weeks ago but I feel it warrants bringing up again. I will state up front, once again, that I have a lot of respect for Puplava, for the service he provides in his show, and for an education that the mainstream media does not provide.

Yet, in my opinion, here he goes again moving away from investing and getting more into his market timing endeavors. If we are to believe he generally discusses on his show the investment moves he has been making over the last 1-3 months, then we need only look at the list of abysmal failures in his market timing calls over the last year (all quotes are close paraphrasings, I could find the original quotes in the transcripts if I wanted to take the time):

1) January 2008 - "Oreo Theory" - markets broke down completely during the expected "Creamy Filling".

2) Summer 2008 - recommending junior PM companies prior to their 80% drop.

3) October 2008 - specifically stating, "Do not sell your energy investments. They cannot print oil like the Fed can print dollars." Oil then falls below $35. In February/March 2009 Puplava says he is glad he has been selling some of his oil companies and "raising cash." Where was this advice during the entire six-month oil decline from $145 to $35 per barrel?

4) Summer 2008 - stating: "Bonds are the last thing I would want to own in this inflationary environment. The only thing worse than holding dollars is a promise to pay dollars in the future." Then in January - March 2009 he is recommending high yield coprorate bonds, Treasuries as a safe place to park money, etc.

Now, except for the Oreo Theory (which I always thought was suspect), the thing is that I do believe that Puplava has his theories correct in the long run. I do believe in Peak Oil. I do believe we are headed for higher inflation. I'll admit, I bought a bunch of juniors in May, 2008 prior to the crash. However, I was able to buy lots more through the trough of the bottom during November. So I am fine with his advice, because I never considered it to be a short-term investment. I always expected that the payoffs on these juniors would not come about until we had the combination of higher gold prices and material improvements in company fundamentals, neither of which have been happening in the last six months.

So, while I still appreciate his long-term perspective, based on these major timing miscalculations, I have decided to not give any worth to any of Puplava's short-term timing attempts. He has clearly failed over and over with these over the last year. Yet, I still believe he has the BIG PICTURE correct. I just wish he would quit the damn whiplash show and stick with what he believes in, and stop trying to become a back and forth market timing hedge fund.

About the only short-term Puplava timing assessment I would concern myself with is if he decided he would be actively selling some of his large junior holdings. This, I would have to respect, simply because I think with a holding the size he has, he could fatally wound a junior company by divesting a large portion of his holdings. But this is also a reason why I believe he would not do something like that. This is conjecture, but I would assume that the majority of the clients that he has invested in Tyhee and Kimber are long-term and with high risk tolerances. He probably would not have had a retired grandmother who needs dividends to live invested in juniors, so hopefully he will not be getting many redemption requests for them.

Baires, thanks for posting that response from Dave Webb. It solidifies in my mind why I own this company as a long-term investment that I am comfortable leaving alone for a few years while gold prices go where I know they must, and the company management keeps the company steered in the right direction.

Jim, if you are reading this, thank you again for the education and honest big picture analysis on several key areas. Your short-term timing calls, however, need to stop, as they are seriously hurting your credibility.

Hysteria