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Message: Flight to safety CANADA
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Jun 13, 2009 04:42PM

Jun 13, 2009 07:05PM
1
Jun 14, 2009 04:17AM

Flight to safety CANADA

in response to by
posted on Jun 14, 2009 07:37AM

While we have waited over a month for news on the PP, our forum has little to discuss on Tyhee. So here's an off topic thought, relating to the value of gold in Canada, like Tyhee:

A friend of mine has immigrated to Canada from Russia. He worked for me last year, then had to go home to wait for his immigration visa. I also have family who confirm what he reports. In the last year, hyper inflation has really struck Russia. Their economy has become a trainwreck, and people do not have enough money for basic needs. Salaries are not being paid, or what they do pay is not enough to cover the cost of living. People are having to sell their gold and other things of value just to survive. It reminds me of thoes TV adds about gold selling parties in the US. Cash for gold is a phenomenon now, whereby people are all excited to give away their remaining scraps of gold for some short-lived quickly-blown cash. After that, as the real economy continues to worsen with an unemployment rate closing in on 10%, and price of fuel rising again thorugh $70, the peole in the US are soon to face a shock of stagflation. The real economy is not improving, even if the government cash infusions has lifted the stock market and profitability of a few key banks, by this winter the self-deception you see on CNBC will have fizzled.

THey've gone from "there is no recession" to "there was a recession, but it's already over" to "OK< it may not be completely over, but there' no depression". The next stage will be a recognition that this is a very deep recession that has not turned, and my not turn for years. So as it continues to get worse, what people are experiencing in Russia will become a reality in the US: the cost of basic goods has to rize as input costs go up and the reduced volumes force suppliers to raise prices to stay afloat. Consumers no longer have increasing home values to provide expanded credit, so they can't run the economy on debt-based concumer spending. The opposite, in fact, as these concumers now have turned to debt-repayment and constraint. When the government finally accepts that they can't borrow or print their way out of this, and cut spending also, it will further erode the false economy.

So the US is in for some very challenging time, and perhaps we have years more dislocation coming. No gold selling parties once the gold is gone. Interestingly, the US government still does not talk about gold.

My bet is on a few more months of self-deception, and then more crisis to unfold in Sept to December. At just about the time that Tyhee has made progress on the DAR and PF, our long term investment may come into it's own at just the right time.

So investors looking for a safe place to invest should look to Canada, as it is a safe jurisdiction with a stable banking climate, not a lot of debt and not so much per capity debt as the US. Gold in the ground here is a much safer bet than it's been given credit for. ANd once weak countries start to nationalize gold production, and investors learn that geopolitical risk is a huge issue, we may see people lauding such new discoveries as Tyhee has, regardless of how many hoops we have had to jump through on the regulatory context.

SKELEG


Jun 14, 2009 07:43AM

Jun 14, 2009 08:05AM

b_b
Jun 15, 2009 07:13PM
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