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Message: Several data points for your consideration

Several data points for your consideration

posted on Sep 25, 2009 01:04PM

The news today is great, I am pleased that we are still moving in the right direction. However, I want to draw your attention to a convergence of data points that I think will be playing out in the next few weeks that are potentially even more powerful than this news:

A) First, please watch this video showing some recent technical analysis for gold. To summarize, they are calling for a cyclical LOW in gold during the first week of October.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/goldcycle921/

B) I continue to believe that gold needs to retest its breakout point from the 6-month consolidation, around $965-970.

C) Please read this article detailing how foreign investment in long bonds has nearly ceased, and the Fed has been the primary buyer of the long bond.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/visualizing-upcoming-treasury-funding-crisis

D) The Fed has only $10 billion left of its intended $300 billion in treasury bond monetization. What happens now that foreigners have moved away from the long bond? The Fed will have to announce another round of monetization, as early as next week.

E) What happened last March when the Fed announced its first round of monetization? Gold shot up nearly $60 in the course of a couple hours, from $880 to $940.

F) Finally, watch this last video for recent technical analysis for gold.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/goldfalling/

Putting this all together, here is...

MY THESIS: In the next week, gold retests the breakout around $965 from the first week in September. A successful retest and base is built above that figure. This corresponds to the cyclical low expected during this timeframe. Then, when the FED is forced to announce its next round of debt monetization in the next two weeks, this provides the catalyst for another $50+ day in gold, finally sending us above the previous all-time high of $1,033. From there, we do not look back.

The next phase of the bull market begins... Tyhee releases some good drill results... I overhear someone at the gym talking about buying some gold... we are off...

Hysteria

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