you wrote: I use EW so I understand your terms. Of course this would have more to go- much more. Wave 3 is usually 2.168 X wave 1, so we could be looking at 1400-1500 for gold at the apex of P3, if that's what this is. My only problem with your count is P1- it's not your text book impulse wave. Waves 1, 3 , and 5 are all about the same length in your P1 scenario. Certainly not against the rules, but not perfect.

I think that was a typo and that you meant 2.618 or 1.618 relative to wave 1; either is possible and with commodities the 5th wave is often as long as or longer than the third.

The trouble with Elliott Wave as a primary analysis tool is it is so subjective until it has pretty much completed. There are usually many options and alternate counts along the way. At this point in time I can come up with four valid counts (all on the bullish side). And I am sure there are counts that can support the bearish side as well.

Even after a run is complete, two people will count the sub-waves differently.

About four years ago when the Nasdaq had completely broken down and the Dow and S&P did not fall to the same degree I came up with a stunning idea which has since proved true. While the Nasdaq was at a major 5th wave peak in the year 2000 the peak in the Dow/S&P was not a 5th wave but a 3rd of V wave. There were in phase but off by a wave cycle. Now the Dow/S&P would be experiencing a savage decline were it not for all the government support behind them.

Here for example is yet another perfectly legitmate bullish count. Major wave I ends with 1033.90 high mar 08. Major wave II ends with 681 low aug 08. Major wave III begins from that low; the first subwave wave 1 completes with a high just above 1000 in late Feb 08. NOW HERE IS WHERE THINGS CAN BE DIFFERENT FOR THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH DATA YET. A sharp short ABC correction takes us down to roughly 860 in mid Apr 08. Wave 3 of III begins there. Wave i of 3 of III takes us to 980 in late May early June 09. The wave ii correction takes to 900 by the end of July 09. Wave iii of 3 of III starts off 1 up 2 down and as part of an extended wave another 1 up and 2 down. That would put us currently in wave iii of wave 3 of wave III if it (wave i of 3 of III) does not produce yet a third 1 up 2 down; that can happen in a wildly bullish market.

We won't know for sure exactly what we've got until we have more data. This is not to say that Elliott Wave Theory is useless. There are times when only one count will work or the alternate count will be so unlikely as to be diregardable (if there is such a word) and traders can pounce on those opportunities if they are really sharp. I prefer to use the count (and the fibonacci sequence) just to give price projection possibilities.

My primary tools are a very long EMA and fundamentals which support that EMA picture.

Recently the Dow /S&P actually climbed aboard the inclining EMA which I use . That would indicate that they might continue to go up. Indeed with money printing even a pig can be made to fly, but since the fundamentals are horrible I won't be putting any money there in spite of its bullish stance on my chart. Gold on the other hand has the fundamentals, it is above and has been for almost all of the last 8 years (in an inclining posture) the EMA I use, so naturally I interpret the waves in a bullish manner.

Gold has just broken out to the upside from a massive reverse H&S formation and it has broken out of a triangle formation to the upside which would be natural since we entered the formation from a lower price. Could gold go down from here and could the EWI folks have it right? Anything is possible; but if it comes out that way it will be the call of the decade for it is against all logic IMO.

P.