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Message: History

History

posted on Oct 22, 2009 03:47PM

Fact: There were only 15 trading days on the London Gold Exchange between 12/21/79 and 1/21/80 - in those days it closed completely during the holiday week.

Fact: In those 15 trading days, the London afternoon fix rose from $473.10 to $850, a rise of roughly 80%. (Actually POG reached $887.50, but was only $850 at the fix.)

Fact: Despite a sharp drop after 1/21, POG spent most of 1980 in the $600-$700 range, hitting a secondary peak on 9/24/80 of $710.50 (again, afternoon fix).

Fact: Most miners peaked in September 1980. It is difficult to quantify pricing because HUGE dividends were being paid out in cash in those days. But the gains were enormous.

Observation: If history rhymes, we haven't yet seen anything close to the blowoff of this cycle. When it occurs, we might expect the miners' prices to outlast POG for a time in similar fashion, primarily due to extensively leveraged profits at the newly established higher POG plateau, even if it's below the peak. AND - under that situation - imagine how much the little guys - the juniors/micro caps - will be revalued upward. They were the shining stars of 1980, as you've read in many blogs.

Print this and tape it to your wall, and read it during every downdraft.

Strike

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