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Message: CHALLENGE: Who can spot the 10-bagger?

CHALLENGE: Who can spot the 10-bagger?

posted on Nov 22, 2009 11:28PM

I have a challenge for everyone on this board.

I am going to post five charts in five separate messages. Please tell me if, based on the chart posted, you believe this company gained 1000% off its lows in the period immediately to the right of the chart I have provided. IF YOU THINK IT DID BECOME A 10-BAGGER, PLEASE “RECOMMEND” THE APPROPRIATE MESSAGE WHERE THE CHART IS POSTED. If not, please do not recommend it.You may recommend as many charts as you believe became 10-baggers.

The rationale for this experiment follows:

I can summarize the recent negative rhetoric felt amongst some shareholders here as: despite strong increases in gold and many gold mining shares in the last year, Tyhee has barely moved off its post-crash lows. This is true.

So, by logical progression, they are saying that something is fundamentally missing regarding Tyhee. Whether it is a resource update, a PFS, environmental permits, or marketing efforts... the market has not yet seen what it needs to revalue Tyhee higher.

So far we are all in agreement.

The next logical question I ask is: will Tyhee or will Tyhee not achieve these fundamental improvements that will cause the market to revalue the company?

For those shareholders who believe that at some point in the next year, Tyhee will show a resource update, a Pre-Feasibility Study with robust economics, and progress toward environmental permitting, we believe the answer to the above question is: “Yes.”

For those shareholders who point to the lack of share price improvement as the market’s decision that these fundamental goals will not be achieved, they must then believe the answer to the above question is: “No.”

It is because of these shareholders, those who believe that the current share price of Tyhee reflects an accurate assessment of the fundamental improvements for the company due out in the next year, that I offer the challenge:

I am going to post a series of five charts: A, B, C, D, E. Each chart is of a gold or silver mining company from the last three years. The names of the companies have been removed to as to make this a blind exercise. These companies can be at any range of exploration, development, and production, and with any combination of resources ranging from nothing but moose pasture, to full Proven and Probable Reserves.Remember the backdrop of falling gold prices in the fall of 2008 and rising gold prices since.

The challenge is this: based solely on a share price that is still languishing in a post-crash environment for many months, can you identify which company or companies then became 10-baggers immediately following?

Why am I making this challenge?

Because I wanted to see if it was true that a long languishing share price is indeed a correct market assessment of the company fundamentals for the following year. Because, if it is not true, and we have strong reason to believe that company fundamentals will improve, it would represent a mis-pricing of the company, and a major buying opportunity.

Thank you for your participation. I will be posting the full charts 24 hours from now so we can all see which companies, if any, gained 1000% in the months following the initial chart. I hope we can all gain some insight into efficient market pricing theory with this. If you believe this is a childish exercise, please ignore this whole thing, and continue to believe that current prices fully discount all fundamentals.

Hysteria

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