Re: Calling all technicians
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 01, 2009 05:30PM
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As I stated before, I think the technicals for this kind of stock are not particularly meaningful. One reason is that since this thing has only traded for a (relatively) short period of time, I have to make some assumptions about its long term behavior. You know what they say about assumptions...
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=bbeda80e-8fd9-4a58-b2e7-ab4678ced161
Scenario 1: The entire structure from 2005 through this fall has been a large zig zag corrective pattern, with the move up we're seeing now as the beginning of a new impulse move that will project much, much higher than where are now. Since it's just begun, there's no way of projecting that until a primary wave is complete.
Scenario 2: I could look at the TDC chart and say we had 5 waves down from October 2007 into this September. If that were true, you could expect some sort of corrective rally to happen to the upside, retracing a relevant fibonacci percentage from the highs to the low, somewhere in the 38-78% range. This would preceed another large move to the downside.
So as you can see, using technical analysis other than in the very near term is very difficult here given that we don't have much data to use. I'm sure Puzzleman has some alternate counts or targets but as I said earlier, I think TDC will trade on momentum for the forseeable future. If that's the case, you've already determined you want to speculatively trade the stock, in which case you could just hold on as long as MACD remains above the zero line.