Re: A first observation, and a question
posted on
Dec 14, 2009 10:08PM
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Most of my investment in Tyhee was made at high prices before I even realized there was this excellent forum. I paid more than 60 cents per share in Octobler of 2007, long before I had heard of agoracom. I enjoyed a momentary rush as TDC ran to over 80 cents per share, but after January 2nd 2008 I never saw 60 cents again. It was another Tyhee investor who originally pointed out the rationale for the investment. I also read carefully Frank Barbera's GST Special Report: Tyhee Development (March 27, 2007). I obtained independent third party information about Dave Webb, and concluded that he has a rare combination of excellent understanding of geology and mines along with a passionate commitment to create a legacy of value in the Yellowknife area he knows so well. Yes, of course I did other due diligence, with the help of some professionals who know a lot more about geology and mining than I. I compared what I believed to be the prospects for Tyhee with that of other Juniors, and I liked what I saw as Tyhee's potential. So you have correctly concluded that I did not rely solely on the forum for information, since in fact I did not even know of it until a decisive majority of my investment had been made.
Then I suffered the same pain many of you have, with the price of TDC crashing. While the crash was painful, I try hard to separate my emotions from my investment analysis (and it is hard). When I learned of your forum, I thought it would probably be like so many other stock forums I have briefly scanned, filled with gossip and conjecture. I was pleasantly surprised to see a higher caliber of discourse, with some insights that I believe have helped me remain faithful to my original premise, that the opportunity represents a significant multiple of the market price of the stock. A couple of the analyses offered by forum participants were not so far off of my own, although I tend to assume more shares will be outstanding on the ultimate payoff day than some of your colleagues do, and I assume a somewhat longer timeline before I would sell even a single share. Yes, there remain risks, and you and your colleagues have discussed these well in the forum. I suspect that many investors will sell Tyhee far too soon, seeking to break even or to capture a double or triple on their investment. I am assuming that the investment I have have made in Tyhee will be for a period of additional years, unless Tyhee is sold (prematurely?) to another investor or Mining Company. The stock is clearly too illiquid to have made any other assumption upon entering it in the first place.
I have learned the hard way that there is very little that is certain in the world of investing, and that I need to remind myself of my own ignorance frequently if I am going to continue to succeed. Like you, I try to learn as much as I can before I invest, and I ask what would happen to me if my investment became worthless. In my case, a complete loss on TDC would be very, very painful. But I think the odds of that are so small that I am taking that risk in the expectation (not just hope) that our patience will be rewarded handsomely.
I hope you will forgive me for making my first observation today. I have done quite a lot of due dilligence on Tyhee, and to spout off a detailed analysis of why I think the stock will prove to be a very successful investment would sound like hype and could imply precision where there remain unknowns. I have also invested a significant amount of time and money in due dilligence that I am not inclined to give away for free, as it is likely that I will purchase more shares in the future. If a potential investor simply reread Frank Barbera's March 27, 2007 report and revised the numbers and timelines based soley upon Dave Webb and the Company's public pronouncements, including those relating to the costs of operations and the needs for future financing, I think they would conclude as I have that Tyhee stock at these prices represents an extraordinarily attractive opportunity based upon risk-adjusted potential reward compared with risk of loss.
I look forward to our celebrating our initial success in the not too distant future. And if the Board of Directors does not sell us out or create a too generous joint venture with another company in 2010 or 2011, then perhaps we will be able to celebrate a truly spectacular success within just a few years.
In the meanwhile I'll try to restrain myself from commenting further unless I think the group is missing something very important in their thinking.
Calmlyrational