POG closed out 2009 at ~ $1096, only 3 or so bucks higher than Friday's close. It doesn't feel like we are flat over the last 3 weeks, does it? It feels much worse because we've gotten used to 35% yearly gains. Analogous psychology - a couple of months ago Tyhee was 14 cents; now we are all disappointed it's only 22 cents. We've had/continue to have a mild correction in a bull market.

There is strong support at India's 200 ton buy price (~$1040), and massive support at $990-1000. If we fall to or near that last level it might be the best possible setup for a multi month rally to new all time highs. I'm a believer in 1450-1500 in 2010. The 35% gain again.

Two outlier scenarios: (1) The administration panics before the November elections and accelerates its quantitative easing programs. Then we might approach $2,000. (2) Volcker takes Bernankes' job (again) or simply continues to gain populist traction within the administration, and he spearheads a credit pullback/contraction like 1980 redux. Then, watch out below.