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Message: Gold still in an uptrend

Gold still in an uptrend

posted on Jan 28, 2010 08:19AM
Gold Still in an ‘Uptrend,’ Superfund Says: Technical Analysis
By Nicholas Larkin

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, which has fallen about 11 percent from its record last month, is still in a long-term “uptrend,” according to technical analysis by Aaron Smith, a managing director at Superfund Financial Singapore Pte.

The attached chart shows gold is trading above its one-year trend line and the metal’s 14-day relative strength index is at about 40. To some technical analysts, a reading below 30 signals prices may rise. The second chart shows bullion, at $1,090.30 an ounce at 6:13 a.m. in London, above its 150-day moving average.

“This is simply a normal pullback,” Smith said in an interview in London. “Gold is still above its one-year trend line and considerably above its 150-day moving average. The long-term momentum is still there.”

Gold is little changed this month, erasing a gain of as much as 5.9 percent, as the dollar rebounded against a six- currency basket. The metal climbed for a ninth year in 2009 as governments cut interest rates, spent trillions of dollars to shore up economies and central banks boosted gold reserves.

“Every time the RSI has approached the 40 level, it’s been an excellent opportunity to purchase gold,” Smith said. “Until we see the 200-day moving average breached, the uptrend is still intact.”

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Moving averages can signal directional trends for a security.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 28, 2010 01:17 EST

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