Tyhee's Pre-Feasibility Study Could Be Delayed.
posted on
Mar 18, 2010 09:56AM
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There was some discussion on this forum as to whether or not Dr. Webb could deliver this year’s first Clan Lake drill results “on time”.This seemed especially important to many since they were hoping, including Webb himself, that Tyhee could display those data at this months PDAC in Toronto.
In the end, the assays were published this week, March 16th, precisely punctual as it was scheduled in Tyhee’s previous news release, i.e., “by mid-March”. (After all, there are 32 days in March, at least here in Argentina).
So, might we expect this same punctuality for the release date of Tyhee’s Pre-Feasibility study (PSF) sometime during the scheduled “first half of 2010”?
Few of us are looking forward to revisiting the same agonizing delays of 2008’s release of Tyhee’s Preliminary Assessment, or the painful, belated conclusion of last summer’s retarded financing.
With that in mind, I recently asked Dave Webb if he thought there’d be déjà vu again with regard to this Spring’s intended release of Tyhee’s PFS.Here, paraphrased in embolden letters,is how he responded prior to this weeks news release:
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Tyhee has a pretty pretty good, not perfect, track record for scheduling dozens of events, with only two or three having been delayed. So, let’s say, for example, there have been 40 scheduled events and 2 delays, so you might estimate a 5% probability of a delay.
Regarding the PFS, you can see the number of times Tyhee restated its planned delivery of the PFS and see:
February 16, 2010: A Preliminary Feasibility Study was initiated in 2009 and will be completed by the end of June, 2010.
January 27, 2010: The work at Ormsby will be used to complete portions of our preliminary feasibility study due sometime in Q2 of this year.
December 23, 2009: Progress is continuing to being made on the Preliminary Feasibility Study and the results should be available within six months.
December 9, 2009: Additional work continues on the Preliminary Feasibility Study and Permitting as previously disclosed, with completion anticipated before the end of June, 2010.
This show how Tyhee has been providing the same, consistent guidance for several month. Nonetheless, there still could be delays even though none have yet been encountered. After over a year’s work on the PFS, Tyhee continues to restate the same final completion date. Not too shabby!
That said, let’s not overlook that a PFS requires the contributions of many individuals and factors. A delay caused by any one of them could potentially delay the project. For example:
ØWeather
ØThe drilling company
ØGeologists
ØSamplers
ØTruckers
ØAssay Prep Labs
ØAirlines
ØAssay Finish Labs
ØAssay check labs
ØGeotech Engineers
ØEquipment suppliers
ØCustoms and border services (some equipment is highly specialized, unique and crosses boarders)
ØMetallurgical Engineers
ØMetallurgical labs
ØEnvironmental Scientists
ØEnvironmental Labs
ØWater labs
ØQuotes from Power suppliers
ØCapital costs specialists
ØMining engineers
ØGeostatisticians
ØDrafting Services
ØMineral Economists
Furthermore, considerations of delays may come from illnesses, drill results related to mine plans, permitting, as inspectors don’t shut down road, drills, camp, fuel resupply airlines, etc. A lot can go wrong.
To paraphrase something Forrest Gump once said, “stuff happens”. Tyhee has a very good, not perfect track record. If there’s a change in the PFS’s scheduled release, we will let you know.
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That's what Dave wrote me prior to this week's news release. And in that release it stated that, "Tyhee is on schedule for the completion of its Preliminary Feasibility Study. This is expected to be finished within the next three to four months."
So, with "four months" to go, we just might see the PFS's delivey slip into July.
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