Sometimes It's Helpful to Compare Tyhee With Other Companies.
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 01, 2010 07:02AM
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When Skeleg focused our attention on Romarco Minerals last year, we saw how the nearly 10 bagger progress of that comparatively more advanced junior could shed some light on what the future might hold for Tyhee. Romarco, considered by many to be the one gold exploration junior most analogous to TDC
Likewise, I felt Skeleg’s recent focus on Viking Gold was helpful. To the extent that knowing more about it, as one of Tyhee’s most contiguous neighbors, might help us better understand what possibilities there could be for future prospects at the Yellowknife Gold Project (YGP).
Furthermore, comparing the valuations and possible reasons for those valuations of other similar juniors, with that of Tyhee’s may sharpen our perspective on the market and how it is valuing TDC.
Would it be a shock to know that stock prices rise and fall for many reasons? Sometimes, even irrational ones?
Last year, before I deactivated my Facebook account, I had a brief exchange with another “Facebooker” who happened to be a geologist based out ofTyhee’s YGP camp. He knew about Baires and we commiserated our disgust with Tyhee’s low share price. Then, TDC was trading at about 12 cents. He wanted some reasonable explanation for what he felt was its gross undervaluation. I told him that my explanation was quite simple (ok, perhaps naïve). It had to do with how the market valued risk, and that despite all the obvious value we both saw that made Tyhee worth holding, its undervaluation was mostly because of the risk that the market saw in a junior with a NO pre-feasibility or permits.I gathered that he reluctantly understood and agreed with my take. Soon after, we lost touch as we both disappeared into the cyberspace.
My point: It can be useful to compare the reasons why some companies are valued higher or lower than Tyhee.
And, speaking of comparisons, here is a rough time-line of the progress made by Romarco Minerals last year (2009) as it approached its TEN BAGGER status. This information comes for a slide (thanks to Romarco’s IR) that was on, although nearly unreadable, Romarco’s website last year. Unfortunately, I found it impossible to copy and paste it to this page. So, please, instead, accept what I’ve transposed from that slide as being pretty much of the information that was on it.
As I gaze, and I hope you will too, at Romarco’s advance and the milestones it attained last year, I wonder how much of a match it will be with what Tyhee might achieve following its Pre-Feas. in June:
1. Beginning of Jan. 2009, R.V Share Price (SP) is about 20 cents (The month before it was about 12 cents).
2. Feb. it announces a “bankable feasibility” at Haile, SP up to 50 cents
3. Feb. it closes $22.4M private placement, SP dips under 40 cents by March
4. March, it files an NI 43-101 feasibility for Haile, SP goes over 40 cents
5. April, Announces increase in resource at Haile, 3.26M oz., SP to 70 cts.
6. By June, SP about $1.00
7. June, it extends Haile position by 2.4 km, SP goes below 80 cts.
8. June, 33m of 5.3 gpt and expands mineralization to east, SP about 70 cts.
9. July, 36.6m at 8.0gpt, expands mineralization between zones,SP to 80 cts
10. August, $46M bought deal financing, SP goes from about $1 to 90 cts.
11. September, Confirms mineralization between zones, SP about $1.20
12. September, R.V acquires more property, SP drops to around $1.10
13. November, R.V announces “major” resource increase, SP up to $1.80
13. November , 21m at 4.9gpt, 9m at 13.4 gpt SP at $1.80level.
14. December, Announces start of new feasibility study, SP plunges to under a $1.20 but quickly recovers, ending 2009 at about $1.80.
Can Tyhee do something like this in one year’s time?
Cheers,
Baires