one good week for tyhee shareholders
posted on
Apr 04, 2010 06:02PM
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It could be this week, or next, or the third week of july. But when it happens, and a fundamental revaluing of tyhee will occur.
It won't be gradual, as I wrote before. It'll be a significant jump to some new level, with each of the two or three MAJOR benchmarks achieved. The confusing thing is that the order I expected, which seemed natural, may now become inverted by some JV discussion. So in normal (below) or inverted order:
0. Drill results. Not a big SP mover in my view, but potential to show the enormous potential of the gold camp, of the expansion of the resource at Clan lake.
1. Pre Feasability study. I personally think it will be based on a larger resource, and at least 180,000 oz annual production. The math will be done for variants including higher gold price than the EA, lower energy with the Hydro from Blue Fish. This will establish a more accurate NPV for Tyhee, and be the basis for Tyhee talking with any potential JV partners. When this occurs, some risk and a better valuation basis will inevitablly (one should think) lead to better valuation in a jump. I actually belive that the $0.70 level tyhee was at before cancelling the progress on the underground only EA process back in 2008 was punnished (and exacerbated in the winter of 2008 for economic criss) because of the time lost in having to restart the EA process on an open pit and underground mine. But now we've paid this time. So the pre feas is a wake up call to investors and funds that dumped tyhee, that tyhee has done it's time in the doghouse.
2. DAR. This is key, as getting a permit may take longer in Canada, but as Crystallex has shown, a permit in an honest governmental climate, even if long in coming, is far better than a stalled permit in a backward/inconsistent jusrisdiction. The DAR acceptance, and any initial feedback on any ares that need a bit further work (if any), is an ENORMOUS game changer, and something of tangible value. That anticipation of it was spoken of in that Ming Fung press release confirms that any companies with an eye on tyhee have an eye on this key benchmark in the EA / permit process. This DAR submission will occur in 2010. A Tyhee press release on the status of the DAR may be part of one of the drill results news releases this summer. Or it may just suddenly be done, and announced, as soon as Octobre or so. yes, that's six months away, but when you get into things as important as this, the market should anticipate this occurrence. So before or upon DAR submission, Tyhee should have another jump.
3. And maybe first to occur, a suitable JV partner with cash to infuse in the project, on terms that are beneficial to Tyhee shareholders as well as the board (shareholders themselves, with lots to lose from continued low share price, continued expiration of their warrants etc,and yes, DW's NSRoyalty). This suitor must have cash to have anything tyhee needs. We don't need some other junior to join forces with. We need cash that will accelerate exploration and will take us to production faster. But a suitable JV, or even serious discussions ranging from a 10% or 12% investment (seed money, like AEM did with Comaplex), or a larger deal could come with one of those deal break fees and complex aspects. Or it could be another non-binding thing. In any case, if and when Tyhee makes a step or a move into a JV, it's valuation jumps. Then it gets noticed, and a larger player could get involved. I hope it does not occur until the Pre Feas and DAR are achieved, but market anticipation of these events, in the form of a solid valuation and investment by a JV are certainly possible.
So we have two or three serious jumps in share price ahead, with at least two of three to occur this year. The market anticipates. It anticipated this long haul, and punnished tyhee. But we've paid our dues and done our time. Now I truly believe that it'l anticipate these events for 2010, and we shoudl not be able to buy shares for 25 cents any more.
Looking forward to loggin on one day to see that one of these things happend when I had my attention focussed, as it shoudl be, on livng life (playing with my kids) and not my investments.
SKELEG