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Message: A Tale of Two Feasibility Studies (as related to Tyhee)

A Tale of Two Feasibility Studies (as related to Tyhee)

posted on Apr 15, 2010 03:58PM

I have just spent some time studying historic examples of development-stage companies that complete a Pre-Feasibility or Feasibility Study, have Measured and Indicated resources transferred to Proven and Probable Reserves, how that sequence of events may result in coverage being initiated by John Doody's Gold Stock Analyst, and subsequently how share price may be affected by these events.

This relates directly to Tyhee, because with the expected June release of the PFS, most of us are hoping for a major revaluation in our 2 million ounces of M&I gold, from the current $25/ounce to some level much higher. There has also been some question as to whether or not Doody would eventually cover a company such as Tyhee, and if so, when. I will first discuss two examples, and then relate this to Tyhee’s upcoming PFS.

First, an example we are more familiar with, Romarco Minerals:

Doody first mentioned Romarco in February 2009, shortly after their feasibility study was released.At the time Romarco traded in the 30-35 cent range. They had 1.34 million P&P, valued at $71/ounce.

Doody then did his first full review of Romarco April 2009, at which point he specifically did not recommend that his subscribers buy Romarco due to his speculation that there would be massive dillution to build a mine. In November 2009, with Romarco now at $1.30+, Doody again reviewed Romarco and again did not recommend it as a Top 10 pick.

In the November 2009 review he states: "Once final size set, permits seen taking 18 months then 18 months constr." Let us assume that the final size is set in June, 2010 (probably too early an estimate). This would mean that with the above-mentioned three years required for permits and construction, production might commence in June 2013, at the earliest. Again, given that Romarco was first mentioned in February 2009, this means that Doody does and will review a company with Proven & Probable Reserves over FOUR full years prior to production.

Thus in summary, from February 2009, when they first released their FS and Doody first covered Romarco (four years prior to its expected production), to April 2010, Romarco has seen their share price rise roughly 6 times, from 35 cents to $2.Their 1.34 million ounces of P&P gold is now worth $537/ounce. Yes, you read that right.

Second example-- and yes it is a completely different company with vastly different fundamentals-- is Seabridge Gold.Seabridge was first mentioned in May 2007 by Doody and the first full report was in July 2007. At the time Seabridge had NO (zero) P&P resources.Even so, Doody reviewed it but did not recommend it as a buy. Seabridge was trading around $20/share and had 50 million M&I resources.

Fast forward to March of 2010.Seabridge finally releases their Pre-Feasibility Study, which shows 30 million ounces of P&P and a cash cost of roughly $300/ounce. The company has a market cap of $1.16 Billion. In the two weeks since the PFS has been released, the stock is up about 30%. However, it is still only $28/share, essentially in the same range as in May 2007, when it was first reviewed by Doody.

When you do the math, Seabridge's 30 million ounces of P&P gold is being valued at $38/ounce. To me, this means the market does not believe that the mine can be built. Essentially their gold sits at the base of a mountain glacier, and the market is not convinced that the site can be successfully built, no matter how much gold lies up there.

In summary, here is a 30 million ounce P&P company that has seen essentially no share appreciation from their Pre-Feasibility Study.Seabridge's gold is valued at $38/ounce, compared to Romarco's $537/ounce. Both companies have economic feasibility studies that resulted in their M&I resources being transferred into “Doody-approved” P&P resources. Yet, the market believes one story (Romarco); the other it does not (Seabridge).

Now, how this is directly related to Tyhee:

This is directly related to Tyhee because it gives us a full range of examples to see how the market may react to a (pre) feasibility study. Which company is Tyhee most similar to? I would say Romarco; however I will leave that for the market to decide after June. Is it possible that Tyhee's 2 million M&I could equate to roughly 1.5 million P&P in June, and that in the year following the PFS our gold is revalued from roughly $35/ounce (using 1.5 million potential P&P) to $537/ounce, like Romarco? That would result in a 15-fold increase from current levels, or a share price of $3.45, ignoring dillution. Is it possible? In my opinion, yes. That would make Tyhee a life-changing investment for me. However, to show both sides of the spectrum, we must also keep in mind how the market has essentially ignored a company such as Seabridge and has barely increased its valuation for their 30 million P&P ounces.

I have done this study just to illustrate the breadth of possibilities for what we might see going forward over the next year. I, for one, expect something more along the lines of Romarco, but I am mentally prepared for other outcomes.

As a final note, as shown in my examples, John Doody first reviewed Romarco a full 4 years prior to anticipated production, when their FS was released. Doody first reviewed Seabridge 2.5 years prior to even having P&P ounces, and construction there may never occur. So, anticipating Tyhee production sometime in 2013-2014, let us not write off the possibility of Doody starting to give coverage to Tyhee sometime in the next two years, especially if we can show in the range of 1.5 million P&P in June.

Doody reviews (not in the Top 10) 14 companies with P&P reserves under 2.0 million ounces, out of a total of approx 75 companies covered. Sometimes (as in Romarco) it is enough just to be covered, not necessarily recommended in a Top 10 list. Such coverage would be a tremendous exposure boost for Tyhee, and again, according to my study, Doody has and will review smaller P&P companies years prior to production, no matter his current opinion on the flea status of any animals.

Hysteria

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