Why the Junior Miners should move up significantly before very long
posted on
May 16, 2010 10:25AM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
From 2000 to July 2007 the $CDNX to $GOLD ratio was between 3 and 5.
I.e. the price of the Canadian Venture exchange (which is dominated by junior miners) was 3 to 5 times the price of gold.
Then madness struck the world and the ratio which had been running toward the 5 to 1 end of the range for nearly three years suddenly fell below 1 to 1 (bottoming at approx. 0.8 to 1). Did every junior mining operation suddenly become an overvalued "flea bag" operation?
I think not!
Gold was still very strong. Indeed (gold the metal) broke out to a new all time high over $1000/oz in US dollars by the 1st quarter of 2008 while the juniors were selling off. I won't tell you what I think this smells like. Yes, I know, we were going from loose money and free spending due to the housing boom to tight money during this period but it still smells foul.
Assuming the price range which existed from 2000 to 2007 was rational, then with the current ratio of $CDNX to $GOLD at approximately 1.29 to 1, ALL the juniors need about a triple in price just to get back to rationality. Add to that fact (or use this as a counter to the loose money/ tight money scenario) the price of gold was $650 then and is $1230 now. Plus the financial condition and direction of the world's monetary authorities is better understood now and it greatly favors further significant increases in the price of gold.
So whatever calculations you make when you figure where Tyhee's stock price might go because of the PFS and permitting progress BE SURE YOU TRIPLE IT JUST TO GET BACK TO RATIONALITY.
Realistically, the fundamentals now are far superior to that fateful period in mid 2007 when everybody lost their mind or something truly smelly happened. Due to the vastly improved fundamentals, the multiple by which we estimate the value of Tyhee's stock price should exceed the aforementioned triple by perhaps a factor of two or more and that's just to go back to sanity. From there we might figure where Tyhee should really go in the future. Wait 'til this market goes insane to the positive side which it will do if time permits.
P.