I think the most reliable indicator of gold stock price is the ratio of $GOLD:$CRB (gold divided by the CRB). The higher this number is, the wider the profit margins.
Now this is for the producers. As for the explorers, there is no profit margins yet so we cant really be sure when they decide to move.
Based on some cycles work I see something happening around June 12th give or take a week. I am hoping that will be a bottom and we move up from there.