So we know the risks. Takeover, inability to get financing, Canada nationalizes mines, no permit, crappy FS, etc.
In case Tyhee makes it, here are my latest calulations:
ASSUMPTIONS:
No take over, Tyhee gets financing, gets permits, gets a positive feasability study and the Canadian Government behaves.
Production rate of 150,000 oz/year, shares outstanding @ time of production of 500 M, total debt @ start of production of $150 M @ 8% APR and 8 year amortization which is monthly debt. service of $2.12 M or $25.44 M annually, operatiing cost $600/ounce (Current est. per PF is low $500's), Gold @ $2,000.
Yearly Gross: 150,000 X $2,000 = $300,000,000 ($300 M)
Yearly Net: $300 M - (150K X $600) - (25.44 M) = 184.56 M
Earnings per share: $184.56 M/ 500 M shares = 0.37
Therefore price per share = $7.40
At ALF's numbers its $55.40
If production rate increases it's higher.
If there is a "blow-off" phase in the gold bull its higher.
I am still buying FYI TDC, Gold and Silver bullion.
SM
PS: I still think Tyhee makes it to production as a publicly traded company.