obvious
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 30, 2012 02:20AM
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I have posted this from time to time and not had a definitive reply,
My view is that the sellers are those who participate in the PPs, and that they then sell shares out of their inventory to bring in cash fo the next PP. True, they can not sell the new shares for several months, but my theory is that they have sufficient millions of shares in a variety of accounts that allows them to sell several millions per month. Their goal is not price suppression, but cash generation. This keeps Tyhee afloat in bringing new cash in with each PP, and small investors buy the few hundred thousand sold each day. Interinvest gobbles up any that risk dropping share price to far below the current line in the sand, 10 cents, but will not ramp their buying up to push price to say 12 cents, as they would run out of steam too fast. (priced in Canadian petrodollars)
All of this is fine. Yes, the seller repeatedly winds up with more warrants and other benefits with each PP, but TDC keeps moving along.
When this sellers can not put up enough shares to satisfy demand, due to massive rise in buying when risk reduced sufficiently, they will stop this cycle. At that point, due to increase in buying pressure and due to sudden absence of one side of a market maker, the share price will recover to a suitable valuation. BANG.
But until risk reduction is achieved they MUST keep selling in small chunks to generate cash for the next PP. Whether they have an inapropriate closeness to the firm handinling Tyhee's PP, or whether they benefit from insider info is irrelevant because they fulfil the essential role of providing Tyhee with a periodic source of cash which is then metered out to small investors like you and I.
Fundamentally, this implies that they have confidence that there is considerable updside potential, or they would not risk it. My conclusion is that accumulating the shed shares whenever I can is the smart thing to do (as I can not participate in PPs, not "sophisticated" enough).
If the above is true, then the question is what is the pint when risk reduction is in hand?
I put it to you that it is not the moment of financing, as that will require a considerably higher market cap ($100, million or more for the industry to consider investing in TDC). Rather, it is when the vaguaries of the regulatory process are satisfied and Tyhee has the water and operational permits from GNWT and DFO. At that point, we will see an abscence of selling pressure coincedent with a surge in buying pressure. BANG!
My new goal, based on some positive developments in my own near term prospects, is to move from 640,000 shares to one million or more before permit. Based on past experience with this investment, however, I suspect the permit will not come until after July, 2012.
Got to gobble small bits until the next windfall, but I suspect the sellers will keep the tap open for several more months.
Got Tyhee?
GS.
PS. Comments about DW "soaking" Tyhee are not well grounded. He was paid far less than his peers. I am sure he was deeply offended by the accusation. He put YEARS into this effort, and I think it far more likely that he was exhausted and befuddled at not getting enough respect for Tyhee despite his wholehearted best efforts.
The global financial crisis is sucking the life out of the junior sector at just the point at which the POG and global NEED FOR GOLD is at a wonderful level. Those of you who blame DW are, in my opinion, quite wrong. Put the blame at Jamie Diamond and Goldman Sachs, the Federal reserve, and the MSNBC talking heads who collectively kick the crapoola out of the junior sector.
Zero percent interest till 2014? The biggest bubble in history is inflating, and the rubber of the baloon is stressing to the point that in Davos they acknowledge that the system does not work any longer. POP! When and how bad, who knows, but big trouble looms.
That is the other part of the risk here. What if the POP hurts so bad that even with a permit, with solid feasability in hand and the right expertise to bring the mine up and running, we end up in an insane world where even in Canada all gold mines are nationalized due to global fiat currency failure? By the way, thanks to the advice of the US banking elite, Canada sold ALL of our gold in the 1990's, so if our currency goes down with the US, and we need to rebuild our gold reserves, our government could surprise us with novel ideas about where the gold must be sold. Hopefully it won't come to that. More likely, with Prime Minister Harper having total power in Canada for the next few years, they will remove all bariers to mining and energy projects, screw the environment, economic growth is all that matters (to Harper). If you are following what is happening up here in Canada, parliament returns this week and Harper has a long list of changes in store for us all. (good for investors, not so much for nature).
So my bet is that being long Tyhee will pay off later this year, and that whatever happens with the US debt spiral, Tyhee Gold Corp will be a producer valued in the multiple of Canadian petrodollars.
There are so many Rumsfeldian 'unknown unknowns' here, but the obvious thing here is that the person(s) selling are also the ones participating in the private placements.
That is my opinion, and the subject of my novel, Winter Kill - War With China Has Already Begun. Gene Skellig.