Re: Dow to decline 90% in next few years.
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 15, 2013 12:30PM
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I'm sure if someone asked Egon von Greyerz specifically whether he means 90% of its current number or 90% of its current value with respect to gold he would opt for the latter.
The Dow currently sits at approximately 14,500 points. I sincerely doubt he expects the Dow to fall to 1450 points.
The Dow/Gold ratio currently sits at 9.15. A 90% reduction of that is .915 or roughly the Dow value being approximately equal to the price of gold (nearly 1 to 1) as has happened twice before in U.S. financial crises.
Now if the gold price hits $5000 the Dow will likely take a substantial numerical hit with its point value falling to the range of 5000. However if the gold price goes to $12500 the Dow would only decline as much as it might in any significant correction; i.e. a 2000 point drop.
Gold is money. It is rapidly being recognized as such by all but the general populace. It will hold its value or in this case, since it has beeen forcibly held down through manipulation, regain its value. The Dow is an investment which will likely remain close to neutral (numerically) but its purchasing power will be declining while gold's purchasing power will remain the same or in this case increase substantially as it recovers from its undervaluation.
P.
p.s. If we were to experience hyperinflation with gold worth a trillion dollars per ounce do you really think the Dow would go down?