Re: So Why Didn't Gold Prices Remain High After Trump Won? In a word..
posted on
Nov 11, 2016 03:12PM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
Yes. The gold bull market was losing steam in 3Q. It looks like gold will take a break until April 17'.
The valuations were through the roof on anything gold related. I did my own calculations and gold expectations (not the actual comex price) was around $1500-$1600 depending on what stock. With so much uncertainty given the presidential elections, I started selling half of my portfolio. I am glad I did.
Look, after getting burned so many times by people saying that gold is going to the moon, its just better to keep a balanced view of the world and understand the factors that really drive gold. I will tell you that interest rates trending negative in 2016 caused a lot of money to flow into gold. We had such a nice surge in anything gold related that I made back everything that I lost in the 2011-2015 gold bear. But I saw that the valuations were getting out of hand and that the US wasn't going to be that dumb and go for negative interest rates. Doing that would just sink all the US pension funds and cause an immediate crisis.
Fed's also signaled that they're going to raise interest rates in December, so bye bye negative rates. Interest rates are re-pricing as we speak and causing a lot of volatility in all markets.
Its all out there. You just have to take the time to understand the trends and impact on each market. Yeah markets are manipulated but the "cartel" can't control the long term. Gold is such a tiny market compared to FX and fixed income. Just have to have some perspective and you can see the real hand that moves gold prices.