commentary from solomonsmallcaps
posted on
Aug 26, 2008 09:07PM
Recent Results Include 6.69% Copper Over 71.69 Metres and 3.74% Copper Over 21.77 Metres
Here is some commentary from www.solomonsmallcaps.com on what they see as an upcoming bull run for the Venture. Check their website for the entire article including their top 10 list, I didnt include it because VMS is not on it, but we all know it should be!!!
August 26, 2008
We have never felt more certain of a call than the one we are now making: The TSX Venture Exchange, which plummeted 29% from July 2 thru August 19 (34 trading sessions), is actually now in the very beginning stages of a significant rally that should intensify next week when volumes pick up following the Labour Day long weekend. We presented our case for this in our Sunday, August 25 article, and today we examine in further detail just how far this market could go.
The upcoming rally is likely to have a duration of six weeks (from August 19) to three months and should take the Index up anywhere between 10% and 20% from today’s close of 1,943. In this bullish environment, some of the best stocks could increase in value by 50% or even 100% or better. Given that this would be a “bull run” within the context of what is currently still an overall bear market, it will be a selective market. Investors and speculators, then, are encouraged to stick with quality in terms of company management, balance sheets, and exploration prospects. At the end of this article we lay out 10 situations that we view extremely favorably and all 10 of those stocks will be included in our 30-stock model portfolio that we will be releasing in full Sunday evening, August 31. We strongly suggest, as usual, that investors perform their own due diligence with each of the companies we highlight.
Last month, we warned of the possibility the Venture Exchange could fall to as low as 1,950 over the short term, an area of previous strong support. This market appeared to be in a free-fall when it plunged below 1,900 last Tuesday, August 19, but it quickly reversed course during the day. The 1,881 low reached that morning marked the bottom, we believe, of the massive sell-off that began July 2 and erased 769 points from the Index. This is not to say that we’ve necessarily seen the low for the year, although that is certainly possible. But what we are saying is that given all the technical and fundamental factors we have closely examined, this market is poised for a substantial short-term rally to at least help alleviate the current extreme historical oversold conditions. The sell-off in the Venture Exchange coincided with a general commodity sell-off that we believe has also run its course.
For some reason, the Venture Exchange seems to enjoy a near 30% hair cut every now and then. Let’s now take a look at what transpired following each of the three most recent “crashes” for some insight into what may develop now:
1. May-June, 2006
With a major drop in gold, the Venture Exchange plunged 29% over just 22 trading sessions. After the bottom was reached in mid-June, the Index climbed 14% in 14 trading days and exactly 20% over 57 sessions before reaching 2,800 in early September (another plunge followed that).
2. Late July-August, 2007
This 29% drop of course was fueled by the emergence of the “credit crisis” and also a sharp fall in gold. After bottoming out at 2,350 August 16, the market went on a tear and 56 sessions later reached a high of 3,200, an increase of 850 points or 36%.
3. October-January, 2008
After bottoming out in mid-January at 2,350, the Venture Exchange immediately took off and rose 19% to 2,800 over the next 27 trading sessions.
So, as you can see, we’ve had short-term rallies of 20% (57 sessions), 36% (56 sessions) and 19% (27 trading sessions) following the three most recent major sell-offs in the Venture Exchange (the average percentage increase being 25% over an average period of 47 trading sessions).
With the above in mind, it’s not hard to conclude that we could quite possibly see a rally that takes the Venture Exchange all the way back up to 2,350, a 25% move from 1,881, over the next couple of months. Resistance at 2,350 would certainly make sense as this was a strong support area for a considerable length of time.
We expect a deluge of exploration results in September and October, beginning next week. Keep a close eye on news - historically with the type of market situation we have now, major discoveries and “area plays” have a tendency to suddenly emerge.
We expect a reversal in the Venture Exchange’s 10-day moving average this week which means a strong close for the week to set the stage for the start of some fireworks right after Labour Day.