Welcome To Mangazeya Mining HUB On AGORACOM

Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section

Free
Message: What am I missing?

We are being priced like a distressed company. A company likely to fall into bankruptcy in the short term. Everything I've read contradicts this. This is a company that has been granted new debt - which is unlikely for distressed comapnies. Addmittedly that debt doesn't help Lamaque but it does help the balance sheet because about $20 million of our current liabilities were Russian revolving credit facilities which they've said they will be able to pay off. As a result that working capital number should improve which IMO was the single worst part of the year end statements.

No doubt we aren't in a great position... And I'm certainly not saying we should be worth $1 a share in the short term - but this selling pressure is puzzling based on available information. Even production of 1500tpd at a 2g/t grade (both lower then guidance they've provided) from Lamaque in March at the very least ensures we will be able to continue operations for the forseeable future. In Q1 all I'm interested in are March numbers. Obviously other things matter - but it is March production numbers that will give a clear indication as to whether cash flow positive is achieveable in Q2 as they've said. But average production of 1500tpd and 2g/t for March would be positive in my view.

If production at the end of March was up arround 1700tpd with a grade of 2.5 g/t like they've suggested it could be (unless there have been issues since the most recent NRs) then we're looking at a home run. At an annualized rate that puts us over 50,000 oz/au. It also ensures that we wil be able to easily fulfill gold loan obligations and free up that $4.5 million in restricted cash by years end for sure. Which again speaks to our working capital defficiency that I've been concerned about. With the Russian loans paid off and gold production easily meeting gold loan obligations the only unfunded current liability are the shareholder loans that expire at year end. But again, if we're at the above stated level of production in March, our cash flow in Q2 - Q4 should easily be able to fund those $20 million or so in obligations. Furthermore, they're unsecured... So we have all the bargaining power in renegotiating them.

So I say again - what am I missing? Has there been a major setback at Lamaque that hasn't been diseminated? Because - to me - that's what the market is saying. Q1 financial results likely wont look good - since milling has been restricted and production didn't really ramp up until the end of February. But if they were able to mine even an average of 1500tpd with a grade of 2.5g/t in March - and there hasn't been any major setbacks since the end of March - then we're looking at a great Q2. And anyone who's in WTG at this point is betting on Q2.

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply