Re: Relative Values and WEL
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 03, 2009 12:55AM
The company is now known as FUSE Cobalt.
Lots of interesting discussion on the board with regard to relative valuations and possibilities for future realignments. My opinion, for what its worth, is that Wildcat will continue on its course while SGR focuses on the development and exploration of its own existing properties. Strikepoint is where I expect we might see changes, as they look at new opportunities in the Belt. Note also how Cougar is quickly expanding its claims and trying to become an active player. Meanwhile, Golden Pockets has been waiting to make a deal at a higher value than it could get previously, and perhaps the day is here now where they might finally make such a deal. There is a "buzz" around Rice Lake - almost like good old "gold fever" and things are heating up.
My view on the relative valuations is probably a bit different than others of you. I think San Gold is finally getting to a proper valuation based on what is known - I think $3.00 is about right. As the resource number grows, and especially with an updated 43-101, I would see $5.00 or higher coming and a TSX listing will help further. Then as production numbers come in at projected levels, I can see that a SP of around $10 is a possibility.
Meanwhile, the premise is that SKP should trade at 1/10th of SGR. I have some difficulty agreeing with that. Look at all the San Gold has: vast resources, major infrastructure, an operating mill, choice land position, almost cash flow positive, etc. etc. etc. Does SKP have anywhere near 10% of those kind of assets? Hardly, IMO. They have land claims with unproven potential, no revenues to speak of and continuing share dilution to stay alive. I do not see SKP as being worth their current share price - it is rising on the coattails of SGR and enjoying the exuberance of the growing "Rice Lake gold fever", IMO. Therefore, I think a more realistic evaluation of SKP's price would be around .20.
Then, if you look at WEL and say it should be 2/3rds of SKP, you would be looking for about .13. That seems about right to me and shouldn't be too long in coming, based on just what we have now. One disadvantage is the fact that our share price was as low as it was last winter (.03 and lower even), so we have to overcome that. We also are not high-profile right now, a bit removed from center-stage. I think that as the Jeep project comes along and as work at Reed Lake progresses this year, we may have some results that will help us move higher - up over .15 I am thinking.
I think a sharp rise to .18 or .20 right away will not hold, but a gradual step up from .095 to .11 and then .13 is more likely to happen and to be more sustainable. Hopefully we won't have some more disenchanted former investors dumping again like we saw recently. Otherwise, I do believe we are looking at better days ahead and as economies start to rebound (as they are), demand for metals will grow again causing raw material prices to rise (as we see happening already), and that will provide further support for our share price also.
All JMHO and some speculation on my part.
NorthLion