Remember Why I am Invested
posted on
Aug 16, 2014 02:10PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
From time to time I like to got back and recheck data, to reiterate/test my investment thesis. Here is some of my research:
We have learned much information about the characteristics of Albany graphite since last year, and its important to continue to check this info against what we already think we know and ultimately against what is required for various applications, in this case Zen's focus is batteries. We all know that is our target market so its important to focus on this, I wanted to make sure that we could be a suitable candidate for the gigafactory
First, from many presentations, we know that high grade synthetic is currently priced as high as $20k/ton
Spherical, coated flake somewhere around $10/k ton
Tesla currently uses panasonic batteries which uses synthetic graphite.
Why synthetic? Becuase it performs better than high purity flake, I wont get in to why right now but there are a number of reasons......so lets compare ourselves to synthetic, the Holy Grail so to speak.
From testing peformed last fall and news release: "Published physics data on electrical resistivity of graphite typically ranges from .003 to .060 ohm-centimetres. Zenyatta's graphite showed a resistivity of .0034 ohm-centimetres for a compressed bulk graphite test bar measuring 50x12x2.4mm. These results are comparable with high grade synthetic graphite and represent a value at the top of the range. The resistivity test was conducted on a random sample of Zenyatta's high purity Albany graphite without any attempt to select particle size or to align the graphite crystals to optimize the test results. These initial test results are very encouraging and indicate that Zenyatta's high purity graphite should be competitive with the best graphite available for a variety of applications including electronic components and batteries."
So electrical conductivity is at the high end of the scale, on par with the highest grade synthetic
Secondly surface area as measured by BET,: " Don Hains, P. Geo. stated, "The BET results indicate very high quality natural graphite matching high purity synthetic graphite in terms of surface area. Also, the average pore diameter for the Zenyatta material shows the unit cells are the same as determined for pure natural graphite."BET data are within range of typical high grade synthetic graphite powder. It is also worth emphasizing that the measurements were performed on unmilled graphite material produced from the initial caustic bake process development tests.
Therefore, Unoptimized we matched synthetic
Thirdly, Density or Xylene density (there are a couple of other density measures but I understand this is the most important), we found out from their Japan presentation and noted by numerous posters on other boards that the Xylene density was 2.242g/cm3. If I am not mistaken, the theorectical limit is 2.26g/cm3....thus we have almost perfectly density, I believe the highest grade synthetic can achieve perfect density.....however, we are there.
Thus, we either meet or exceed synthetic in the most important characteristics required for batteries ( I have not mentioned purity on purpose because we already know we have that). The surface area news release also stated that we have a high degree of compressibility which allows for the graphite to be packed tightly in a battery..."A high degree of crystallinity results in various positive qualities that graphite is known for such as electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, compressibility, dimension stability, bending strength and lubricity."
We know TESLAs stated goal is to be clean and reduce the value of their battery packs. Even if Zen undercuts the lowest end flake material to say $9k/ton, that would be revenue of 40K*9k=$360M. We are unsure of costs at this time, but if they can produce our material using the same process as the bench scale, cost should be very reasonable. Tesla wins because Zen is clean and the cost of graphite could be reduced by as much as 50%!!
Now we can probably produce twice that much so we could generate $700M+ in revenue at full capacity.......and we currently sit @ $2....can you say buying opportunity?
Need I say more,
Best
Quincey