Re: Where we are today
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 07, 2014 10:11PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Hello I C Dead People
You have asked a great question and it is one that I ask myself regularly as a realitiy check. I would like to offer the following:
1 Worst case scenario: we lose everything or are only able to get penies on the dollar or use the stock sheets for toilet paper. No stock is guaranteed.
2 Zen has a proven resource that is pesky to grind, float and purify with only a NaOH bake. This is one I dwell on a great deal. I suggest that readers who are interested look the Woxnia/Flinder PEA as they have used a multistage floatation plant that actually recycles the waste gangue and tries to get as high a concentration as possible.
The numbers: This is purely a "guesstimate" based on other PEA's
I will use $18/T for mining, $36/T milling. Ore grade is 3.14% with 90% recovery.
A full year of production could be 1.863M T of Ore -once the pit is deeper waste prestripping is accomplished somewhat- with 52.6 KT of graphite recovered at a total cost of $138M rounding up. That works out to roughly $2600/T to mine and mill.
Overall with these numbers you can get a NPV of 2.4B with a 101% IRR. or simply $41.12 per share fully diluted at 60M shares. Given a selling price of $8500.00/T
On the side of error and conservatism you could have a really pesky system that requires $65/T or $4900/T of graphite to mine and mill. Your NPV is still $1.996B with an IRR of 84%. or $33.26/share
I wanted to post and discuss this range to ask for the community's imput and attempt to add to IC's topic. The point is that even if your costs are as high as 57.6% of your selling price.. this is still extemely viable. Many gold producers around the world struggle with 900-1100/oz costs and are selling into a market in the 1200s. Granted this wasnt the case a few years ago however I think this juxtaposition helps the discussion.
3 The opacity of the graphite world may well influence the writing and decision process with regards to NR. While some want more data and details -which I cannot fault as I too want more- it could be that the people putting this together are institutionally not comfortable with that level of disclosure. Come to think of it.. if Zen has run multiple batches through a lab scale set up.. enough to satisfy a customer.. would said customer even want the PEA numbers published? That would allow their competitors to calculate the raw imput costs on the graphite to a fine degree and lower the acquiring company's competitiveness. I dont know for sure.. its late .. but if Rand Corp could figure out military spending by guesstimating raw amounts of copper and aluminium.. 50yrs ago who wouldnt try it today?
4 The bright side: $14,000 - $35,000/T for high end graphite. The numbers above are calculated with $8500/T which is all USD. By the way.. 14K works out really well as a rough percentage if Tesla wants sub $200/kwh costs.
Closing thoughts:
We are besiged by opinions from all sides. Some negative comments do come from people with an agenda -paid bashing, ego, personal animosity what have you- however there is a line between asking cogent questions and purposely seeding doubt. Should we pick apart a NR like a Shakespearean Thesis? I think not. I do believe that I will always ask and listen especially to contrary views lest I miss something important. From my recolection the only direst slip that I can lay at the feet of Zen was missing the promised follow up report by about two weeks. Aside from that the company has not crossed me as an investor.
I do hope that we are enriched by this investment. Moreover I know that the work I have had to do to learn and understand this has made me a shrewder invester and a better business person. I wish the same positive experiences to the other board members. I hope this helps the discussion.
Good night!
Mongo