In terms of black swan events and the large market moves/shocks I generally defer to Martin Armstrong. I read his information daily and highly recommend it.

He is calling for a late 2015 Soveriegn Debt Crisis. With this issue, capital will flow OUT of any government security into anything private - stocks, real estate, commodities, gold, etc.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/author/armstrongeconomics/

Of course some folks think he is full of crap, but I have followed him a long time and his computer model predictions are very accurate.