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Message: Re: SG capital
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Nov 08, 2014 11:19PM

Good post TP. We are all discouraged by the slow news cycle, the PEA delay and the current sales price. This can all change very quickly and hopefully it will soon. I was thinking about the PEA delay this weekend and the only real conclusion I can come to on this is the sales price model will be higher than that indicated in the 43-101. IF the delay was because of cost increases (process issues really) or something of that nature it still would have been better to release the PEA as is and state they are working on cost reduction for the PFS. The economics would still have been solid. Secondly, if there were soome concerns there would have been a PP as you noted and/or insider selling of some nature.

Call me naive, but I am looking for naegatives here and not seeing any indication of it - other than the dealy itself. If we remember that each $1000 increase in net profit per tonne represents huge increases in the NPV then it well worth the wait if the PEA comes in stronger than $8500.

I often go back to a conversation I had with AE a few months ago and I specifically asked 'What am I missing here" (after we went through all the info we all talk about here) and the clear consise answer was "Nothing".

On your point 4 on the military - it would be extremely unusual for the government to jump in on a junior not yet producing property. If they did, I would assume it would after taking some direction form the US.

Your point 5 is what I also talked about last week. The insiders will KNOW what the value is they can likely get. Selling for less than that makes zero sense. These are not hedge fund operators churning stock. This is legacy stuff here. And AE has shown genuine interest in nensuring all shareholders gte value, not some.

I know we are all dissapointed in the current price but we have to factor in:

(a) the horrible junior market

(b) the PEA dealy

(c) the natural cycle this stock is in between discovery and value confirmation

(d) The Cliff's blind side selling

(e) The decision to make this a close to the vest few releases scenario

All of these are short term negatives on value some in the compnaies control and some not. IF the PEA comes in at minimum $8500 selling price and sub $2000 cost I would expect the stock to go to $4- $6 even in this crappy market. From there, a $10 initial offer is not a large premium stretch. And barring a quick offer I don't have any doubt that we have the option of the DFR path - a small percentage buy in to fund it to feasibility. This would have the effect of also adding value well past the PEA price.

I can babble on forever but we really need to see some news...

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Nov 10, 2014 10:28AM
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