Re: Resource Estimate
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 21, 2014 12:16PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Just a few remarks to add to your post for clarification purposes.
- This is not intended to split hair but $0.5B would translale to $500M/55Ms = $9.09/s (usually rounded down to $9/s, rather than a more generous $10/s; if it were $9.9/s then it would be fine to round it up to $10/s).
Also, we need to specify if this is an "above ground" or in-situ value (in the ground) since the above ground value would be assigned as just a few % of the in-situ value. The % would depend on the nature of the deposit (costs to bring the stuff up to the surface, milled and refined to get a certain price such as $8500/tonne).
- The resource estimates were approximately 1M tonnes indicated and 0.4M inferred for a total of 1.4 M tonnes total as you have indicated. But the inferred amount is not allowed to be used in a PEA, so it would be conservative to use 1M tonnes in the valuation of the deposit. We can certainly keep that potential 0.4M tonnes in mind to have a warm feeling, but the buyers (in a TO) would normally ignore this in their price negotiation.
1M tonnes x $8,500/tonne = $8.5B (or $12B, including the inferred) would be the worth of the deposit in the ground (in-situ). As indicated this deposit would have to be brought up above ground (mined), milled and refined to get a product that can be sold for, say $8,500/tonne.
- In-the-ground value: $8.5B/55M shares = $154/s (nobody would pay this price).
- Current value given by the market: $1.4/s (we are buying and selling at this level).
So, what would be a reasonable value for us shareholders to accept in a buyout? 10% of the in-situ value of 10% x $154/s = $15.4/s ? At 5% it would be $7.7/s, etc, etc...
Would $10/s be a reasonable value for ZEN? I would certainly not waiting for $100/s level, even $50/s level. As indicated, $15/s is just plenty for me. Others may scoff at this price and wait for better ones. Each person on his/her own.
Notes: The resource could be increased by further drilling, since the deposit seems to be open at depth, but the current conceptual pit is deep enough to extract the desired amount/year, for approximately 20 years. There are a few factors that miners would consider:
- the depth of the pit: miners do not want to make it too deep, more overburden and waste rock to remove; apart from the cost. Also, a big hole would normally be more difficult to justify from the EA point of view. These days, a preferred mode would be an UG operation (out of sight out of mind mentality).
- addition resource: It's good to have a larger deposit in the ground, but a main advantage would be the extension of the life of the mine. Quite often, there is a limit for the production, i.e. one cannot overproduce, since the price of the product is dictated by supply and demand principle (e.g. current oil price). In addition, if one has good stuff, but production is limited (e.g. Sri Lanka) then little profit would be expected, hence would not be a good investment opportunity.
There are potential graphite mines in Canada with all kinds of predictions/ambitions, but production rate, so many tonnes/year, is a number worth checking, to size up their potential profits.
goldhunter