hey mark,
For some reason i'm still a little confused about this:
"My NPV $5.74B discounted at 5% (In-Situ Value $17B at $12,000/t)"
So.... NPV and In-Situ are 2 different ways to speculate on value? Is that a correct understanding?
I always thought that investors could use in-situ value (based on proven resources & price) and then take some percentage of that (maybe 5%?) to guess what a buyer may potentially want to pay.
In your example... $17B (assuming $12,000/t avg) multiplied by 5% comes to $850M. Divide by the 60M shares (fully diluted) and you have ~$15/share.
So, unless I'm understanding that too simplistically, the 3 basic numbers we need to know are:
1) the cost per ton to get from ground to market.
2) the avg price per ton we should be able to sell this stuff for.
3) what % of the in-situ value buyers will come in at.
I'm assuming that after the PEA comes out only #3 will be a mystery to us.
I realize this is over-simplistic. However... it would seem that expecting $15/share is not being silly. Unless, of course, we have all been duped and the PEA comes out at unecomic numbers.
~snezzer