Re: How good does the PEA have to be?
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 13, 2015 10:05PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Going to take a stab at this, but the total upfront capital costs of $919M is a bit of a tough pill to swallow for any company. Market cap of this company is $220M. A mix of debt and equity to fund $919M means a tonne of dilution, plus huge debt before the company even gets up and running.
One of the key pieces missing is that it is also a 36 year mine life; therefore, the NPV is not quite that attractive. My initial guess of the payback of the investment is quite long. Therefore, the longer the payback means the greater amount of risk to recouping the investment due to market/commodity risks.
Money is tight, so trying to extract equity, or debt from banks, miners, or others will mean that this company will get bought out on the cheap. If i was a big miner and i wanted this deposit, why not let the vultures (brokers) keep driving the price down, then when it makes sense, buy the company outright for pennies a share (FYI - I don't follow Niobium market and don't know the demands for the commodity).
Why ZEN may have a better chance after the PEA, depends on a few factors:
All of these factors contributing to a huge NPV and very large IRR, will make the deposit attractive to investors.
Part of the reason why we haven't seen a PEA yet may be that AE does not want to release the report without having a miner, or investor committed to supporting the shareprice and investing in ZEN. Without that lined up, brokers and others will play the game and let ZEN flounder with cashflow issues then force a cheap sale, or lower placement. Essentially, stealing the deposit, as others have mentioned. Management owning 25% is not that big of a deal if they cannot fund ongoing operations and the building of a mine.
What will also make the deposit more attractive:
PEA alone will not generate the excitement. There will hopefully be other NRs before and after that will show end-user committment to ZEN and the Albany deposit. That will generate the excitement. The PEA, if really attractive, will be the fuel.