Re: ZEN NEWS!!!
in response to
by
posted on
May 22, 2015 08:45AM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Hello All
As we approach the PEA I wanted to add to the current conversation and emphasize some of the excellent information posted by others recently, notably Glorieux, LT GoldBull and just now RockLicker.
Past: 43-101
We have an average world selling price (SP) of $8500/USD/T with indicated and inferred we have an insitu value of $11.9B USD per share = $195.40 (Note I use 60.9M shares FD for calcs)
Present Met Powder NR:
Avg SP in MP is $10KUSD/T for graphite and average input for the sector is $16KUSD/T. Think about the costs of inputs needed to hit that average both for graphite and other exotic metals!
Blended Average Insitu:
Taking $8500 + $10K/2 = $9250USD/T or $12.95 B, 1 -Dr. Evil Billion- dollars increase. Per share $212.64. Note: there are EXCELLENT NPV summaries posted by others; however for broad strokes and discussion, I have choosen the Insitu bump from blended SP as it makes a strong simple macro level point.
Build a Strong Business Case:
Simply why focus on selling into one market (LIB) when you can sell into the top range of many? Dr. Chahar has the depth of experience with all of these markets and applications. Thus Zen will benefit from not only having a higher overall blended SP for the product it produces but also more consistent cash flow from these various sources.
LIB Demand and cost per KWH:
The CAGR -combined anual growth rate- for the sector is huge. Multiple sources have all shown massive projected growth. -Thanks RockLicker! - Thus I think that it is safe to say that we are at the beginning of the "S Curve" of the adoption of this new technology.
Tesla's stated goal with the Gigafactory is to lower costs significantly and attain/break the $200KWH threshold. Can this be attained through manufacturing scale alone? Surely cost savings in raw inputs will be needed. Furthermore, looking back at the S curve of other technologies, I believe it is very important to ask: how long until $100/KWH is the new target?
Question of Cost:
This leads me to the question of cost. I concur, based on my own analysis, with others on this BB that the cost will be modest. This is a number that will shortly be published for us. Having said that I believe that the cost in conjunction with current and future blended SPs will be the most important "value driver" for Zen. As stated above, as adoption increases, scale increases, costs must also decrease. Thus, if I were at a C level position in a large multinational, I would be in favour of owning and vertically integrating a graphite deposit that is large, uniform, has excellent infrastructure, excellent low costs and is truly Green. Having the competitve advantage for decades of low cost and the ability to maintain margins once buyout/Capex have been paid off should lead to strong bids from many companies!
As always the information is here on this BB. Do your own DD and calculations! Read multiple sources. Most of all.. good luck to all those that stuck with this!
Mongo