i didn't mean to imply that there was any panicking. in fact, just the opposite. many are just tired of waiting. to me, that isn't a panic.

i'm reminded of a casino pit boss i talked to a long time ago. he told me he love's people with 'systems'. especially 'the martingale' where you keep doubling after every loss. he'd pretend he was worried about them but treated them like kings and plied them with booze and more if they were betting high enough.

manipulation is like the stock world equivelant of the casino martingale. it seems like it should work, but it doesn't.

we need to rationalize our losses when we make bad bets, so 'manipulation' is the natural whipping boy. it seems plausible. but it, like the martingale, has a negative expectation. you might occassionally get lucky and win, but more times you will lose. and a big loss wipes out all wins.

people still walk into casinos and double their bets on losses. one big loss completely wipes them out. but they are truly uninformed or superstitious. if they stay at it, gamblers ruin creeps in and takes everything.

it's better not to believe in these things if you can get away from them. it can be figured out if one is determined to do so. some people choose to believe, i do not. i know the price.