Re: Some post CCB PEA thoughts
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 08, 2016 09:24PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
I had not responded because I had not seen anything to respond to as I don't come to this site much anymore. However, I did look and the spreadsheet I was using was designed by someone I respected and I did not update the variables with the PEA numbers. Those variables have now been updated and I will list them and post the changes so everyone can see this was not about maliciously influencing people as Hoov may want you to think.
Variable: Original #PEA CorrectionEffect
Average Grade 3.14%4.05% This actually increases NPV further
Cutoff Grade 0.60%0.90% This actually increases NPV further
Stripping ratio1.124.05 w/o overburden this decreases NPV
Ore Production rate: This was manipulated by me to yield 60k tons per year
Mill recovery 90%75% This decreases NPV
Operating days 355350 Slight decrease in NPV*
Mill Operating costs 1241 This decreases NPV
The operating days also saw production of 89 in year 2, 178 in year 3 and 266 in year 4 while RPA had full 350 days of operation in year 1 which helps increase the NPV.
Of note, ZEN will get $368M USD worth of tax credit in the first 3 years which is reflected in the PEA but not here. This would increase NPV even further. However, even without those tax credits factored in, with all these numbers updated, I still obtain an NPV of $3.8B USD and an IRR of 107%. In Canadian dollars, at 35% exchange, this still yields $5.1B or now $85 CAN per share.
I guess I have to say thank you Hoov for making me look at these numbers better.
As I like to say on SI...CHOO CHOO!!
Glorieux
Technical Parameters | Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
Average Grade | 4.05% | PRODUCTION | ||||||
Cutoff Grade | 0.90% | Operating days/year | - | 350 | 350 | 350 | 350 | |
Reserve Level at Cutoff | 45,200,000 | Waste (t/day) | - | 22,883 | 22,883 | 22,883 | 22,883 | |
Contained Value | 1,830,600 | Ore (t/day) | - | 5,650 | 5,650 | 5,650 | 5,650 | |
Stripping Ratio | 4.05 | Waste Prestripping | - | 8,008,875 | 8,008,875 | 8,008,875 | 8,008,875 | |
Ore Production Rate (t/d) | 5,650 | Ore milled | - | 1,977,500 | 1,977,500 | 1,977,500 | 1,977,500 | |
Mill Recovery | 75% | Ore grade | - | 4.05% | 4.05% | 4.05% | 4.05% | |
Operating days/year | 350 | Mill recovery (%) | - | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | |
Mine Life (years) | 20 | Graphite recovered | - | 60,067 | 60,067 | 60,067 | 60,067 | |
Remaining recoverable Graphite | 1,141,265 | 1,081,198 | 1,021,132 | 961,065 | 900,998 | |||
Financial Parameters | REVENUE | |||||||
Current Graphite Price ($/t) | 13,000 | Graphite price | 13,000 | 13,000 | 13,000 | 13,000 | ||
Mine Operating Cost+G&A+Selling ($/t) | 21 | Gross income | - | 780,865,313 | 780,865,313 | 780,865,313 | 780,865,313 | |
Mill Operating Cost ($/t) | 41 | OPERATING COSTS | ||||||
Total Operating Cost ($/t) | 62 | Mine Operating Cost ($/t) | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | ||
Mine Capital Cost | 100,000,000 | Total Mining Cost | - | 209,713,875 | 209,713,875 | 209,713,875 | 209,713,875 | |
Mill Capital Cost | 200,000,000 | Mill Operating Cost ($/t) | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | ||
Total Capital Cost | 300,000,000 | Total Milling Cost | - | 409,441,375 | 81,077,500 | 81,077,500 | 81,077,500 | |
Working Capital | 25,000,000 | Total Operating Cost | - | 619,155,250 | 290,791,375 | 290,791,375 | 290,791,375 | |
Real Risk-adjusted Discount Rate (%) | 8% | OPERATING MARGIN | ||||||
Operating Margin | 161,710,063 | 490,073,938 | 490,073,938 | 490,073,938 | ||||
CAPITAL INVESTMENT | ||||||||
Mine/Mill Capital | 255,000,000 | 45,000,000 | - | - | - | |||
Working Capital | 21,250,000 | 3,750,000 | - | - | - | |||
Total Capex Cash Flow | 276,250,000 | 48,750,000 | - | - | - | |||
NET CASH FLOW | ||||||||
Net Cash Flow | (276,250,000) | 112,960,063 | 490,073,938 | 490,073,938 | 490,073,938 | |||
NPV @ Discount Rate | 3,778,744,593 | |||||||
IRR | 107% |