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Zenith's BET Inhibitor ZEN-3694 is Currently Being Evaluated in Multiple Oncology Clinical Trials

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Message: AGM - Jan 7, 2016 - Details

Hi PVLee.

Apologies for basing my comments on memory. You can go into the RVX postings to reference the timelines. From RVX's past presentations re BETonMACE and analysis by some posters it seems that the BETonMACE trial will take until sometime in 2019 to achieve 250 MACE events. This timing could vary based on the speed of recruitment. If Hepalink gets moving on dosing in China it will help. Analysis will occur when the full data set is available. Perhaps this will be completed in 2019 or 2020. Then there are approvals that must be received by various regulatory bodies. Then of course there must be a plan for production, distribution, sales & marketing country by country so this probably results in rvx-208 starting to generate revenue around 2021 or 2022. Royalties will begin to flow after that and there will probably be a growth period to peek revenues.

Don has stated that there will be no progress updates of the trial results until the 250 target is achieved.

If dosing (which occurs when patients with DM, CVD and low HDL become available) more rapidly the timelines could be shorter.

ZCC will make it's money through RVX royalties plus any successes that may be achieved by ZEL.

Many posters including me have listed events that may impact the RVX share price as the trial continues but the trial results from BETonMACE are the most tangible possible impact on the share price. IMHO if BETonMACE replicates the results achieved in the combined ASSURE/SUSTAIN trial in terms of RRR of MACE in the DM,CVD w. low HDL patients this drug might be perceived as a block buster. Anything goes at that stage - acquisitions, a frenzy of investment, etc. ZCC's value as the owner of RVX royalties could skyrocket at that stage.

So many positive things could and probably will happen in the intervening period so it will be an interesting ride.

Anyway, these are just my thoughts. I invite anyone to challenge or add to this thinking.

Regards

Toinv

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