I think the probability is low, but that could happen. But as I've posted before, I would consider a CVR deal to be a total disaster.  Depends on the deal, but I would have to seriously consider dumping all my shares on such an announcement.  Read through this article.  (PS. Bristol Myers won the suit this year.)

And I'm thinking/hoping DM would prefer a total buyout.  At his age, I don't imagine he wants to wait another 5+ years to get to the other side of a Phase III study (+ multi years of sales) and have not any visibility or control over the process.  

Re Hong Kong.  I don't know what's going on there but as I posted, DM's relative got 5 years to expiration.  That tells me everything I need to know.

Did you read through what I pointed to in this post?  What are your thoughts on the secured vs unsecured loans in Section 5 (Promissory Notes)?