Message: Rolls Royce info
From November 05 ( I tried to shorten the copy but I can't seem to delete the junk parts.) The RR stuff is highlighted:
-8
4/—
Rolls-Royce
All Nippon AW
-3
30/—
Rolls-Royce
All Nippon AW
-8
20/—
Rolls-Royce
Blue Panorama
-8
4/—
Continental Airlines
-8
2/—
General Electric
Ethiopian Airlines
-8
10/—
First Choice Airways
-8
6/—
General Electric
Hainan Airlines
-8
8/—
ILFC
-8
20/—
Icelandair
-8
2/—
JAL International
-3
13/—
JAL International
-8
17/—
Korean Air
-8
10/—
Lcal
-8
6/—
LOT Polish Airlines
-8
7/—
Rolls-Royce
Northwest Airlines
-8
18/—
Rolls-Royce
Royal Air Maroc
-8
4/—
Shanghai Airlines
-8
9/—
Unidentified Customer
-8
26/—
Total 787-3
43/—
Total 787-8
206/—
Total 787
249/—
Page 3
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
© Teal Group Corporation
World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing
November 2005
Program Overview
History
Middle Market Origins
After Boeing cancelled the 747
Major Derivative family proposal in
the late 1990s, it turned its attention
towards the middle market, the
200/300-seat widebody range just be-
low the 777 (see report). The first
design Boeing focused on was the
much-hyped Sonic Cruiser, an-
nounced in March 2001.
In December 2002 Boeing an-
nounced that it was shelving its Sonic
Cruiser proposal. For months, Boe-
ing’s announcements concerning the
new Mach 0.95-0.98 fast jetliner had
been couched in qualifiers and uncer-
tainties, a far cry from early 2001,
when the concept was enthusiasti-
cally promoted as the Next Big Thing.
The Sonic Cruiser program was
plagued from the start by doubts
about the technological feasibility.
And the relentless downward trend in
airline yields and profits, exacerbated
by the September 11 attacks, made a
performance-driven jet look like a
non-starter.
To soften the impact of the shelv-
ing, Boeing also announced a new
program designed to create a conven-
tional, highly efficient new jetliner in
the 767-size class, arriving in 2008. It
will feature a 777-style cockpit
(something the basic 767 never got),
Mach 0.85 speed, and operating costs
up to 20% lower than current genera-
tion jetliners in this class (767-300ER
for the 787-8’s comparison, 767-300
for the 787-3). Originally studied as
Project Yellowstone, the new plane
was christened 7E7.
The year 2003 also saw numerous
announcements concerning produc-
tion arrangements for the new air-
craft. The company announced that
largestructures would be deliveredby
air, in modified 747 freighters. It also
began a site selection process, search-
ing for the best place to build the
plane. After surveying numerous al-
ternatives in the US, including South
Carolina, Texas, and Alabama, Boe-
ing selected Everett, Washington
(where all Boeing widebodies have
always been built) in December 2003.
For an alternative view of the site
selection process, please see the Au-
gust 2003 monthly newsletter in
www.richardaboulafia.com.
Also in 2003, Boeing announced
that it was recruiting Japan’s aeronau-
tical heavy industries as partners. It
also recruited Alenia and Vought as
major airframe partners, and numer-
ous potential subcontractors to join in
the design process.
The Name Game
The E in 7E7 stood for “efficient,”
although Boeing has also maintained
that “e-enabled”and “environmental”
are good words too. The final desig-
nation, however, was not decided un-
til January 2005, when the plane was
re-designated 787.
As if the site selection process
wasn’t splashy enough, Boeing also
teamed with AOL Time Warner to
create a competition to name the 7E7.
Some 280,000 votes were counted,
with the largest group reportedly pre-
ferring Global Cruiser. At the June
2003 Paris Air Show, however, Boe-
ing went with Dreamliner.
For an alternative view of the nam-
ing process, please see the July 2003
monthly
newsletter
at
www.richardaboulafia.com.
Boeing is planning three 787 ver-
sions. The base version will be a long-
range 223-seat design and has been
designated the 787-8. Another will be
an SR (Short-Range) version de-
signed to replace the 757, with tran-
scon range and now designated 787-3.
It will seat 296 in two classes. A 787-
STR (Stretch) version will carry 259
passengers (in threeclasses) oververy
long rangeand is now designated787-
9. (See Specifications, above.)
The –3 Short Range and –8 Base-
line version are both expected to ar-
rive in 2008 — the –8 will arrive first,
followed by the –3 five to six months
later. The –9 stretch variant would be
delivered in 2010. There could also be
a -10 version, offering 300-seat ca-
pacity with the -8’s range.
Production
Some 65% of the 787 workshare
will go to industrial partners and ven-
dors. Boeing’s goal is to retain re-
sponsibility for only 15% of the 787’s
assembly, with the rest handled by
partners. Aerostructures will be deliv-
ered by modified 747-400 freighters,
designated Large Cargo Freighters
(LCFs). The first LCF will fly in late
2006.
Current Developments
Status
On December 15, 2003, Boeing’s
board authorized Boeing Commercial
Airplanes to offer the 787 for sale to
airlines. In September 2005 the 787’s
firm configuration was announced.
The first 787 test aircraft will fly in
2007. Anticipated in-service date is
2008.
ANA Provides Launch Order
In April 2004 All Nippon Airways
placed the 787 launch order. The
Japanese carrier ordered 50 787s,
comprising a mix of short-range 787-
3s and long-range 787-8s. The first
delivery will be a –8, followed by a –3
five to six months later. Anticipated
delivery rate to ANA is eight per year.
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
Page 4
November 2005
World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing
© Teal Group Corporation
Teal Group Evaluation
A Promising And Necessary
Plane
TealGroupstronglybelievesinthe
787. It has had an exceptionally
strong start, with several hundred or-
ders and the promise of more arriving
imminently. Just as importantly, by
moving ahead with this project, Boe-
ing has signaled to the market that it
is in this business for keeps.
The 787’s success—the order
book looks superb, both in quantity
and quality—shows that building a
better mousetrap can make a differ-
ence.Subsidies areirrelevanthere,for
both sides. The 787 has tremendous
customer appeal, and it’s focused on
the most active market segment. This,
of course, is the exact opposite of the
A380, a low-tech plane focused on a
shrinking segment. If the 787 can do
to the A330/350 what the 777 did to
the A340, Boeing has a war winner
here.
It’s not just the A300/310/757/767
replacement market, which in itself is
big. It’s route fragmentation, which is
happening as soon as deregulation
and other political factors allow.
Technology, in the form of new long-
range jets with low seat mile costs, is
stimulating this fragmentation. Even
in Asia, average aircraft sizes are
shrinking fast.
Development of new low-cost in-
tercontinental airlines, along the lines
of a transoceanic easyJet or JetBlue,
could prove a further catalyst to inter-
national route fragmentation. Unlike
the domestic US (and increasingly the
intra-European) markets, the transat-
lantic market remains securely in the
hands of traditional, major hub-and-
spoke carriers. If international low-
cost point-to-point new market
entrants ever obtain the 30%+ of the
marketthey currently enjoy in the US,
there could be an even bigger market
for the 787. The new plane could per-
haps even be ideal for airlines stand-
ardized around one low-cost, flexible
aircraft, like Southwest Airlines and
the 737, or easyJet and the A320.
In short, the ideal 787 customer
hasn’t been invented yet. But even
until then, it is an exceptionally prom-
ising fragmentation machine for the
traditional carriers—theperfectcoun-
terweight to the A380 philosophy.
And Airbus’s curiousanti-787market
estimate—a mere 900 planes over 20
years — implies an annual production
rate of 45 planes, which is pretty good
for a widebody’s worst-case scenario.
Airbus’s dismissal of the 787’s tech-
nical promise is even more curi-
ous—after decades of touting
composites and spending on compos-
ite facilities, Airbus is now denying
that a composite-based design
wouldn’t provide significantly better
performance.
Meanwhile, the A350 is an un-
known quantity, at best. But in its
-900 incarnation, it might give the
777-200ER a serious headache. If the
787-10 is technically possible, it
would be a very good idea. After all,
cannibalizing your own market is way
better than having the other guy do it.
And if the A350-900 succeeds, it will
boost the -800 version too, hurting the
other 787 variants.
Road Bumps And Hurdles
Despite the 787’s necessity and
promise, it needs to overcome a few
hurdles. First, there’s the technology.
There’s a lot we don’t know about
composites, in terms of costs and cus-
tomer appeal. Composite primary
structures are a new thing, and the
only big civil user of compos-
ites—Raytheon Aircraft—offers a
strong cautionary tale.
Second, there’s the schedule. It’s
very aggressive. We now have a rela-
tively mild delay, but there’s a lot of
risk in any technologically ambitious
program like this.
Also, Boeing needs to reconcile
this aircraft’s missions—the very
long-range international fragmenta-
tion role requires a different set of
design assumptions from the transcon
757 replacement role. We’re betting
that Boeing’s wing variations do the
trick, but again, there’s a risk.
Despite these obstacles, the future
looks very bright. We conservatively
estimate demand at around 2,000
planes over the program’s first 20
years.
Production Forecast
User (Variant)
Through 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
All users (787*)
—
—
—
3
12
54
88
92
92
86
86
513
*First three planes are prototypes/test aircraft.
November 2005
Page 5
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
© Teal Group Corporation
World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing
November 2005
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
Page 6
November 2005
World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing
© Teal Group Corporation
Air New Zealand
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