You might be right as no one knows for certain, even your cut and paste. I certainly don't know what lies around the next corner but I do know that currently the economic fundamentals are rather sound.

In contrast we could have double digit interest rates, inflation and growing unemployment...who knows, maybe we are going there.

I guess with the right amount of panic and handwringing together with other factors your scenario could very well happen. My last look the subprime exposure was limited to about 7% of the mortgage market and all are not going to default. Certainly this is not a rosy picture but one that can be dealt with.

Local builders have exited their buying sprees and sold off their land banks and those still with properties to sell are having a tough go riight now due to their exposure and buyers sitting back...so it is very real. Just how real and how wide remains to be seen.

The rate cut was the right move for now, imo.