What are the probabilities?
posted on
Jun 13, 2008 06:59AM
We know the fiscal year will be a record year, but that occurred at the end of the third quarter.
I will reiterate what I have been stating for several weeks; don’t expect any significant revenue in the 4th quarter, based on the data in the Dec 31, 2007 Balance Sheet. This provides a good indication based on the amount of Customer Deposits, which are minimal.
It also shows a Working Capital deficit in excess of 1 million dollars. As a result, we may see added dilution from new debt or new shares issues for cash. As in the past, debt in many of the contracts is convertible to shares and sometimes allows for added shares if the average share price falls below a specified amount.
Without reviewing all outstanding debt and cash agreements, we may be subject to issuing added shares if the price is below a specific target amount, including options issued to date.
I suspect we will see management asking for additional issued shares at the next shareholders meeting as we are approaching the 300 million shares issued. This will keep the doors open if this course of action is essential to acquire added funding, as there is no indication that we can expect a positive cash flow.
This would not be necessary if we obtained sizeable new orders for the eVU. In light of the airline industry crisis, this is somewhat doubtful.
I would not be surprised if the share price decline was not orchestrated by the MMs, but other entities that may gain an enhanced position from specific share price targets. This may include existing shareholders or potential new debt and/or funds from new shares.
This is highly speculative, but does happen and the transparency is not always obvious.