More thoughts
posted on
Sep 18, 2008 07:55PM
Actually kind of a SGE-like (wish he was here) book if you can all stand it...
Settlements would have to be for nothing less than ALL claims for ALL patents. Think about it. If I’m a company settling out of court for more than a million bucks with some po-dunk company whom I likely consider as a patent troll, then that’s the only agreement I could possibly make. "We’ll pay you x dollars this one time for all infringements past, present, and future for all of your current (and possibly even future) patents. In return, you provide us with a full and unrestricted license, then we don’t ever want to hear from you again".
If anyone heard differently, then I’d say they mis-understood. It may be that they will go after other claims with other companies, but they won’t be able to go back to the same trough for more money on some other claim. I can’t imagine lawyers representing a company like Samsung ever allowing that to be a possibility.
If proving infringement was so straight-forward and simple, then why the h--- did it take DM about 6 months to file the first case and another 6 months to file the next 7? I’m not complaining if in fact success is now somehow assured, but geez - they better darn well have a case that’s absolutely air tight by now. Maybe that could explain RP’s supposed ‘cockiness’? (I wish I could feel that way too!) On the other hand, if DM has been very careful to consider every possible defense and already have concrete answers for all of them, then perhaps it was time well spent and all they have to do now is wait for the opposing law firms to reach the same conclusions and hopefully advise their clients to settle.
100's of millions in settlements can’t help but remind me of billion dollar OEMs. I know it’s already been asked and answered but someone (vdriver?) please confirm whether RP said that to everyone as a group or was it just to one person (sunpoop?)? And exactly how (near as you can remember) did he put it? Over the life of ALL patents/infringers or just the current 7, 8, or 10 that we ‘know’ about? Just looking for some clarification here.
I think I recall awhile back (from an article?) that perhaps one tenth of one percent of total sales was a reasonable figure in estimating possible settlement amounts. If we figure $20B/year, then that would be $20M in settlements divided by two (to account for DM’s split and costs) and we’d have $10M going to EDIG for just one year. I’d multiply that by 5 (to be conservative) to allow for past/future years which still gives EDIG $50M from this group of infringers as I understand it assuming they were all to settle on such a percentage. That would still mean a $100M total settlement. If I am indeed being too conservative, then 100's of millions does seem plausible (even if they’re also being fairly conservative at .1%). Interesting.
Now given the above, what might an "early-mover-discount" look like? Well if I consider that there are a maximum of 9 infringers (not counting Vivitar but still counting the 2 "unknowns") and figure also that the $20B figure is low, then $10M seems like a reasonably discounted amount from just a single infringer. (Settle early and SAVE!!) Really if the case is that air-tight, I doubt the other side could even defend themselves for much less than that. And again for a company like Samsung, $10M would be chump change - and that’s how they would no doubt think of us for accepting such a measly settlement.
Yet consider how much further DM could and would take this with just $5M (their share) in house money to help cover past and on-going expenses. No less important, imagine what a major shot in the arm a mere $5M would be for EDIG. They could erase their working capital deficit of $1,041,952 (as of June 30, 2008), pay off all debt, put almost $2M aside for the next year of operating expenses, and still have $1M to use as capital with which to help expand the eVU into additional markets. All this for a single $10M settlement which not only doesn’t seem like much of a stretch, but fits well with the statement (PN’s according to Sunpoop) of a 7 now going on 8 figure settlement estimate.
Back to my earlier (2007) revelations, one thing I finally realized was that the ‘774 patent could apply to ANY device which recorded and played back voice recordings - even if that wasn’t the device’s sole purpose or main function. With that, it occurred to me that many cell phones included this ability and therefore the potential number of infringing devices went way, way beyond the Olympus voice recorder market. That’s when I started getting very excited about the potential for high dollar amounts resulting from this single patent. So I agree that emit turned out to be right in that Flashback contained a lot of implications going forward.
Again if we consider all of this in retrospect (even before the ink is dry on any possible settlement agreements), we may now have the correct answer to this question: What did DM see in EDIG’s patents? The simplest answer and the one that I think may make the most sense is this: Easy money.
What will it take now to move the share price up? First; a change in perception - which I think is beginning to happen. Second; verifiable facts leading to a general conclusion that this is the real deal (meaning a decent settlement of course), and third; the spread of this information to a wider and expanding audience. Could it still take another year or so? Maybe... although I really don’t think it will and certainly hope not. Will it take two years or more? No way. Me thinks the light at the end of the tunnel is the EDIG train. (Where’s Darwood?)
I’ll tell you all right now... I have to agree with LL and Wolfy in that I’ll have to see it happen before I actually believe it; but I’ve never, ever been more hopeful or confident than I am today that things are ultimately going to turn out okay.
I’ve got to go to bed now - early morning ahead. Night all.
- Sinkman