Re: Returning to eDigital after about ten years? - sperri40
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 01, 2009 09:25AM
You are no doubt aware of what’s going on with the company in regards to IP monetization as well as IFE sales (something and nothing). You’re here because you see a 10-12 cent stock and a possible opportunity. Most investors should know by now that risk is everywhere. The trick is in measuring it and then figuring out the right timing and the right amount that could give you a good return while protecting yourself if you’re wrong.
I think EDIG is worthwhile at this time for a new investor because:
1. They have some cash in the bank now (at least to cover another 6 months of operations expenses) and little remaining debt (which they’ve made clear will be paid off in stock by the end of the year)
2. They will soon receive a decision on the digEcor lawsuit which as much as we can tell should be favorable in that I don’t expect a major judgement against EDIG, not do I think that any appeal will change the decision. Worst case is that an appeal will cause the case to drag on further. All of this is just my opinion of course.
3. They are about to finalize a settlement (through DM) with Samsung (by 9/18). This will probably at least provide enough cash for them to continue another one or two years without any other financing - giving them time to continue IP monetization and sales efforts. In my opinion, this single fact should limit the downside risk. Worst case would be to linger around in this range or drop a penny or three (8-9 cent range) for an extended period of time, but I don’t really see that happening because...
4. It is at least as likely as not that they will announce a new round of IP infringement targets in the near term (by the end of the year) which will hopefully result in continuing settlements and possibly a major Markman test of the patents down the road. My sense is that IP monetization will be ramping up and that we will soon be able to see DM’s strategy unfold.
5. IFE (or other area) sales and/or partnerships remains an area that could surprise. While success to date has been limited, now that they have some capital to pursue possible opportunities, any news on this front would be welcome indeed as it would show a business plan beyond IP.
6. They will likely announce a date for the next shareholders meeting soon. There are several potentially positive implications of just this event that I won’t go into now. We’ll just have to see what happens.
Finally, with the ‘recovery’ and the normal cycle of things, September seems like a good time to be investing - and EDIG seems very poised to see some positive developments over the next few months. Personally I see us trading in a significantly higher range by the end of the year.
- Sinkman