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Message: Some thoughts and judgments about the future

Neil Hennessey: The Economy's in "Very Good Shape," Buy Stocks for the Long Run!

Posted Feb 26, 2010 07:30am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Neil Hennessey is a fund manager with a bullish bent. Robert Prechter is a veteran market watcher with a decidedly dour outlook.

The two pundits are opposed on just about everything, but agree on one thing: There's a lot of risk in fixed-income.

Echoing Precther's view from earlier in the week, Hennessey noted that mutual fund investors are flocking into bond funds. Both men agree investors are chasing fixed-income returns at their peril, but there the similarities end.

Where Prechter sees a deflationary cycle and recommends investors flock to cash, Hennessey has a decidedly more upbeat view. "Long-term we're in a cyclical bull market -- one that people don't believe in," the fund manager says, reiterating a call from early October that the Dow will double in the coming decade.

Hennessey's very bullish case rests on the following:

  • -- Stocks are cheap relative to bonds and real estate. "Where else are you going to put your money?" he wonders.
  • -- Corporate America is "so strong now" after getting lean during the 2008-09 recession. "Any incremental increase in revenue will fall to the bottom line," he says.
  • -- "The economy is in very good shape," Hennessey declares. The only thing holding it back is a lack of clarity on policy, be it taxes, health-care or general regulation.

As the president of a firm that oversees about $900 million, including several equity mutual funds, Hennessey is admittedly biased on this point. But lest you think he's totally Pollyanna, the money manager does believe unemployment is going to remain elevated, at 7.5% or higher, for the foreseeable future.

But that doesn't diminish his long-term bullish view, which, if nothing else, puts him decidedly in the minority among most market prognosticators.

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