Value - taken from SH posted by JoakimA - Thanks JoakimA (great analysis)
posted on
May 16, 2011 02:19PM
So far in 2015, three trenches have been completed in the area covering the smallest proposed pit located furthest west with channel sampling from the middle trench, TR15-11, returning 6.05 g/t Au over 8 m including 14.98 g/t Au over 3 m.
Myself:
I´m a fairly large investor from Sweden with almost all my money into the Gold Bullion. I got my Master of Science in geology and petrochemical science and have some on-site experience from gold mining.
I strongly believe that this is going to be a winner, but we are going to need time, lots of time even if we add 4 extra rigs. The first step of doing so will be to upgrade the resource estimate from a year ago to a National Instrument 43-101 resource calculation which will be done at the late June this year.
Resource:
1200 x 500 (fluctuates between 400-700 m) x approximately somewhere between 150-300 m now, but with the plans to drill down to 450 vertical. Almost every hole is with the drill not vertical into the ground, which means that the hole is shallower than the actual vertical depth. You always do this in the early drill campaigns when you drill for structure to get as much facts as possible in the area around the hole.
Gold Bullions Granadas project will be a gigantic low grade open pit mine, with possible high grade areas like the Aukeko (10 grams/tonne possible). If we got hits from Aukeko, everyone should hold their breath, because of the strike over the landscape is becoming enormous. Osisko has 1900 x 300 m x larger depth (350-400 m?), GBB is not far away as today with similar grades if we drill with RC-drill to determine just GRADE and not STRUCTURE as with NQ-drilling. The bulk sample was very important as the NQ-drilling not determine the nugget effect that could be very high for these types of low grade deposits. 1,62 grams/tonne in the bulk sample and maybe half than if you take Eastern Extension as well.
Grades:
In the bulk sample we got some 1,62 grams/tonne which is actual very encouraging. If you compare that with the early drill results you see that they are way lower. Thats the important notice that you need to understand. NQ-drilling is not intented to determine grades, especially not in low grade deposits like Granada. End of discussion.
Everyone get that the Preliminary block model presents an higher average of grades over a higher number of cores than the Eastern Extension. That is nothing that worries me, because of the increasing size of this beast. Grades (notice the word grades now, keep understanding so I do not loose everyone here) down to 0,4 is worth taking to the mill after mineralurgy tests in Australia where the Gekko Industries is located. At these "low" grades, they where able to extract above 93 percent and al the way up to 97 percent of the gold which is outstandning! Everything you put into the plant you get in gold bars, this is a very important thing to notice! Not all companies get these numbers and loose money in the last step of the process, which means that you also loose the most money (have someone seen the series Alaskan Gold Rush on Discovery Channel where they loose their money in the process plant?).
Drilling:
I think we are going to need some 500.000-1.000.000 meters of drilling (maybe 100.000-200.000 meters of NQ and then the boring infill drilling begins) if we want to determine how big this thing is, which will take time. We also have 11.000 hectares of prominent land and we have only drilled 0,55 percent of this land package. I have seen some people in the forum say that we have drilled 5-10 percent, but that is incorrect.
Some estimations:
Low estimate:
1200 x 500 x 150 m = 90 million cubicmeters of ore x 2,5 tonne/cubicmeters = 225 million tonnes of ore x 0,5 = 113 million grams of gold / 31,1 grams/ounce = 3,67 Moz
Average estimate (my own prediction right now):
1200 x 500 x 150 m = 90 million cubicmeters of ore x 2,5 tonne/cubicmeters = 225 million tonnes of ore x 0,8 = 180 million grams of gold / 31,1 grams/ounce = 5,78 Moz
In the resource update in June, I think they will be presenting some 4-4,5 Moz because of the infill drilling needs to be done, but somewhere 4-4,5 would be a very good estimate right now.
High estimate:
1200 x 500 x 300 m = 180 million cubicmeters of ore x 2,5 tonne/cubicmeters = 450 million tonnes of ore x 0,8 = 360 million grams of gold / 31,1 grams/ounce = 11,57 Moz
To use 450 m would be to much I think, but if we got hits down there, it would be to deep to open-pit, but partly do underground mining is also possible.
Money:
Everyone of us is interested in money, we would not be here elsewhere. Myself is also interested and get all excited when news is around the corner. But if we see how much the stock price would be if we put some numbers from above into the calculation.
I always round all my numbers downward as you may notice below, as Basa also does.
Low estimate:
3 Moz at 50 dollars/Oz = 150 MCAD
Outstanding shares 166 million
Stock price should not be lower than 90 cents
Average estimate:
4 Moz at 80 dollars/Oz = 320 MCAD
Outstanding shares 166 million
Stock price should not be lower than 1,93 CAD
4,5 Moz at 80 dollars/Oz = 360 MCAD
Outstanding shares 166 million
Stock price should not be lower than 2,17 CAD
High Estimate:
10 Moz at 150 dollars/Oz = 1500 MCAD
Outstanding shares 166 million
Stock price should not be lower than 9,04 CAD
If we get 1 CAD after the month of June is behind us, I will be happy because of the volatile market right now, but there is much to be done in the stock price until the year of 2011 is over. For example spin-off of Castle Silver Mine, with a large grab sample of almost 200 grams of silver per tonne! Look at the Wildcat Silver, First Majestic, SilverWheaton, here we come ;) Castle Silver Mine and the forthcoming spin-off is valued to 0 CAD above. The rest of the 10940 hectares is valued to 0 CAD.
Stock price:
I think that the stock price is very embarassing, because of the total lack of control in Canada to stop manipulating stock prices to get stocks for a lower cost than normal. It is actually not a risk to sell stocks between two brokers without loosing any money at all. If you lower the stock price in a artificial way, you get weak hands selling their shares cheap and the snowball is rolling. I have not sold a single stock since early 2010...
2 things: The stock price is what people are willing to pay, it is not the valuation of the company. The stock price will always normalize if fundamentals are there, let them play, but do not let them pay to cheap!
Future:
Drilling, drilling and more drilling. The NL43-101 will be highly important for GBB in the near future and in the longer perspective. We do NOT want any more PP:s below 1 CAD.
We are in a mineable jurisdiction and we have a fairly safe harbour in Canada. Granada is close to great infrastructure. Basa always mention something about permits and have already commenced an Environmental exploration of the Granada property, which is very good. He is one step ahead...
A process plant is estimated to take 18 months to deliver :)
Best regards from a sunny Sweden! We have had some 25 Degrees Celsius for a while now!
Joakim