noise while waiting
posted on
Feb 05, 2010 10:46AM
blogs jumping on the bearish bandwagon:
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/smartrend-s-candlestick-scanner-detects-bearish-engulfing-pattern-for-legend-international-holdings--756413.html
http://www.smallcapinvestor.com/smallcapnews/todaystrading/2010-02-04-this_exploration_stock_has_potential (just a bried mention)
The tape keeps looking worse, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding significant changes in the US & world: all the proposed (good, imo) bank regulations and fees queued up in congress, health care bill uncertainties...then there's the dollar's continued sharp bounce because of the euro's devaluation due to Greece debt...and also a slight hangover correction over last year's high. Near term, a somewhat bleak picture it seems, and LGDI is definately being impacted.
I'm still optimistic long term, 5 years out we all know things will be much better, as Buffet said with his all in wager on the stock market in Nov 09. Bill Gross predicted sovergn debt will be at the center of focus in 2010 and he is right so far. Currency devaluation is the secret weapon of governments and looks like countries in the world are in a race to see who is first to devalue (venezuela recently halved its currency! china is holding it down as ususal with protest from US, korea, etc...) Devaluation increase export revenues and decrease deficits without having to cut spending or increase taxes...it almost seems like a magic wand. There is no way the USD can continue up for too long. Obama is criticized for his large spending, which he needs to do to do in order to fix the economy. He promised to double exports by 2015 in the SofU address!! There is no way that can happen on a strong dollar. I think he will resort to his secret weapon. And when devaluation is back, commodity value priced in USD or any other currency will increase significantly (long term). Who knows what the LGDI pps will be in a few years? I guess only one way to find out...hold, wait and see.