posted on
Mar 25, 2010 05:43PM
Developing phosphate interests in the Georgina Basin, Queensland, Australia
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Unfortunately, this board is completely dead, but I'll kick it around with you a bit.
I think that if I were laying odds on if LGDI was gonna ship any phosphate this year I say 50 to 1 against. Privately the decision has already been made and they've said as much in the recent releases. Nothing is in place, not the permitting, not the infrastructure, not the mining equipment. (see the excerpts in my recent posts)
The price of phosphate remains too low to bother when they have the money in the coffers and more coming in soon, we hope, from Wengfu.
Management would rather strike the deal with Wengfu and look towards the value added products where the margins are much higher and hey if phosphate prices take off any time during the next two years well then great we got the IFFCO off-take ready to go.
This year is a loss, and we probably go quite a bit lower from here when they announce the dilution that I think that everybody on this board saw coming the moment they announced the Wengfu talks back in November. Your PPS is headed down no matter what happens. If Wengfu pulls out, it plummets, if Wengfu is in they dilute and it plummets.
If you are averaged it at .60-.70 like most people on this board then its not game changing. I mean when I was buying this stock 12 months ago I was planning for a 4 year time horizon; nothing has changed, if anything my position will be stronger after Wengfu despite dilution.
Let's face it though, its dead money for another two years. Everyone realizes this which is why there is no chatter on this board anymore.
I don't see buyout though, because it would be an expensive acquisition for what amounts to just glorified mineral rights. There isn't anything going on on the ground and it would seem that there are cheaper plays, and we're talking just in Australia, that have rights to plenty of mineral in the ground. LGDI is only further along on paper until they produce anything - which smart money now says is still two years away.
As to the amount of capital investment will be necessary on their part for the rail, I don't think anyone knows that yet. And as to the BMO/Fidelity thing was answered by somebody a couple months ago. I can't be arsed to look for it, but a definitive answer was given.
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